TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x896e…8902

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
102
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 53 out of 100; worst La Liga at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$107
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+59.8%+$35.87
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+82.5%+$90.78
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.41
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.44
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$88.89
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$173
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$63.42
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+104.8%+$149.52
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$97.05
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$138
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+226.5%+$847.41
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+31.6%+$63.16
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$620Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+250.3%+$1,552.06
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+73.7%+$283.75
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,667Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$1,666.78
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT2433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.59
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.09
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.01
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$78.21
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$78.57
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$42.2
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+85%+$238.06
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$147.76
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$173.73
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+400%+$391.24
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.21
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.21
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.44
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.08
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.23
All 24 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+57.6%+$18.36
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+525%+$157.5
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+313.6%+$470.37
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$207.14
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.33
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.9
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.1
Will Southampton FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$130.5
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.4
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.34
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$425Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$376.59
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.06
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+109.7%+$69.75
All 17 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$322.87
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$221.11
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.51
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.56
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+147.8%+$477.84
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$356.62
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.99
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$121.68
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 3 - 0 FC Bayern München?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.86
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.93
All 15 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+203%+$101.52
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$59.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madridbacked Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.