Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e9713d5dd3893d45e88fb98fd832d6e5bab0ad0b704fee688f273b64331b044
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc72…b99abacked Yes | 3c | 2,779$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +277.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 38c | 2,382$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 38c | 2,212$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 63c | 1,699$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.77 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 38c | 1,438$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed Yes | 12c | 1,431$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed Yes | 37c | 1,349$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,308$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes | 25c | 1,015$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.28 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.1 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 63c | 935$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed No | 62c | 917$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 38c | 917$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed No | 63c | 837$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed No | 62c | 794$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 62c | 774$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed No | 62c | 748.92$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed No | 62c | 738$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 62c | 736$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 732.26$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.82 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked No | 62c | 721$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed No | 62c | 702$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 55c | 607.69$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.15 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked Yes | 19c | 535.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed No | 54c | 518.75$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.33 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 511.83$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.44 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 510.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 38c | 504.67$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.96 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 54c | 419.9$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.18 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…0f80backed No | 68c | 377.61$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 68c | 335$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 334.07$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…c8c3backed Yes | 16c | 307.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 39c | 290.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed Yes | 46c | 237.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da4…7403backed Yes | 43c | 232.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…c2a2backed Yes | 47c | 212.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…0a67backed Yes | 48c | 209.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 191.7$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 36c | 188.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed Yes | 43c | 185$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…a85abacked Yes | 43c | 173.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…488dbacked Yes | 36c | 173.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2b…0d43backed Yes | 38c | 129.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb1…8d22backed Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 28c | 123.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 113.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 73c | 113$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 15c | 110.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 68c | 107.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 104.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 45c | 102.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…831dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 44c | 92.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 91.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 38c | 85.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…22e4backed Yes | 15c | 75.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…0107backed Yes | 18c | 72.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…70c6backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Yes | 45c | 58.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 32c | 57.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 45c | 56.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…1351backed No | 63c | 55.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed No | 53c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cc…c3fabacked Yes | 27c | 45.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd671…634cbacked Yes | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 40.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…e249backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…e014backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…3637backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…f84dbacked Yes | 35c | 31.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…d6dbbacked Yes | 38c | 29.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 55c | 29.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 26.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d0…d74bbacked No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 68c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in April 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.