TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,152 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc72…b99abacked Yes3c2,779$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.312433.3%8 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+277.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes38c2,382$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.161844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed Yes38c2,212$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.561346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed No63c1,699$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.771275%9 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+108.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce55…c888backed Yes38c1,438$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.441442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed Yes12c1,431$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.721421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f87…3929backed Yes37c1,349$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.131050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes37c1,308$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.961040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes25c1,015$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.285135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes14c1,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.113518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91af…95c8backed No63c935$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed No62c917$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.46933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74c…9c72backed Yes38c917$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.461030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed No63c837$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.691154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x673d…e929backed No62c794$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.72977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+70.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed No62c774$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.121560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5516…2263backed No62c748.92$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.59862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed No62c738$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.441338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed No62c736$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.681442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes26c732.26$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.823622.2%8 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe794…321cbacked No62c721$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.98955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed No62c702$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+84.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No55c607.69$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.1538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x82cd…00aebacked Yes19c535.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d4…8e51backed No54c518.75$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.337027.1%19 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No56c511.83$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.4434234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes10c510.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7444224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes38c504.67$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.966018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0401…2f0ebacked No54c419.9$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.184938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26be…0f80backed No68c377.61$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.611369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No68c335$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8110558.1%61 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No72c334.07$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x586e…c8c3backed Yes16c307.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504936.7%18 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes39c290.7$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.831344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x896e…8902backed Yes46c237.4$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9da4…7403backed Yes43c232.13$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.86955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc485…c2a2backed Yes47c212.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+68.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf534…0a67backed Yes48c209.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c199.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c191.7$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes36c188.59$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe593…8692backed Yes43c185$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.553259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b4…a85abacked Yes43c173.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.621526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick15cpaid+196.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab8b…488dbacked Yes36c173.09$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.61040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b2b…0d43backed Yes38c129.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb1…8d22backed Yes48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed Yes28c123.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8515643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c113.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.281,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No73c113$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.032161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes15c110.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.041199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No68c107.68$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0817129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No70c104.16$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1113255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes45c102.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.86038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377548%36 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e57…831dbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-83%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed Yes44c92.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.836235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No55c91.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.017341.1%30 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed Yes38c85.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.316934.8%24 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d9…22e4backed Yes15c75.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.023360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb28…0107backed Yes18c72.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a17…70c6backed Yes39c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.053625%9 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-52.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x729a…9d0abacked Yes44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e45…1efbbacked Yes45c58.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.341154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes32c57.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7715436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes45c56.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.477138%27 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf816…1351backed No63c55.15$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaddc…c226backed No53c53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.911346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.664136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes43c49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.072642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88cc…c3fabacked Yes27c45.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd671…634cbacked Yes45c42.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1970%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No58c40.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0932345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes39c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6020…e249backed Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x020f…e014backed Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152245.5%10 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+66.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes39c38.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.198031.3%25 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66ca…3637backed Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc935…74cfbacked Yes44c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.48858%51 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Yes35c34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd52…f84dbacked Yes35c31.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c29.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85fb…d6dbbacked Yes38c29.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No55c29.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1211452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No54c26.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.298038.8%31 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09d0…d74bbacked No57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1210321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No56c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.242334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.84358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+52.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked No68c18.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.973542.9%15 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No76c17.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.268482.1%69 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.