Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ad08cab7fb310932104eb5524279673b9b758811b73cd42839974893f797161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 76c | 3,002$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.11 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…b99abacked Yes | 4c | 2,325$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +277.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 67c | 2,157$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.86 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 1,993$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.27 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 20c | 1,798$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 63c | 1,737$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.3 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 79c | 1,630$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 39c | 1,551$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.54 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…488dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,401$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 43c | 1,342$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.95 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed Yes | 39c | 1,089$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.61 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 77c | 1,044$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.91 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 51c | 997.87$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.98 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes | 20c | 984.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.11 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 51c | 927.37$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.47 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 907.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…a1cfbacked Yes | 23c | 865.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 8c | 781.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 19c | 756$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 68c | 735.76$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.86 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 732.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 19c | 730$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 655.45$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.61 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 80c | 626$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 80c | 608$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 21c | 589$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 80c | 564$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 21c | 543$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf0…a575backed Yes | 4c | 511.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 21c | 498$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…c2a2backed Yes | 21c | 477.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…8c2dbacked Yes | 44c | 404.08$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 400$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed Yes | 50c | 396.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 78c | 390$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…22e4backed Yes | 21c | 377.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked Yes | 5c | 377.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 347.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 300.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes | 36c | 279.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 43c | 269.86$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 41c | 247$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 59c | 246$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 73c | 229.28$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes | 38c | 225.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da4…7403backed Yes | 46c | 217.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 215.24$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…2c7ebacked Yes | 49c | 204.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec18…0720backed No | 64c | 199.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 188.63$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983b…09c4backed No | 58c | 168.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 48c | 153.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…faf6backed No | 68c | 145.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 44c | 140.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…06ecbacked Yes | 39c | 136.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +146%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb1…8d22backed Yes | 37c | 133.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…13b9backed No | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 133.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 41c | 128.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 124.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 20c | 124.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 51c | 122.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked No | 52c | 118.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 79c | 110.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…510bbacked No | 63c | 107.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked No | 57c | 103.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2b…0d43backed Yes | 25c | 100.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccba…9314backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 95.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…ba5abacked Yes | 17c | 90.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 85.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…e513backed Yes | 52c | 85.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…cd40backed Yes | 40c | 84.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…4b51backed Yes | 50c | 83.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 80c | 79.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f3…9afbbacked No | 53c | 75.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 47c | 72.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 72.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…881ebacked Yes | 47c | 65.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5595…f5e9backed Yes | 41c | 59.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…3e73backed No | 62c | 59.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…306bbacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 54.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 19c | 54.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 52.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 48c | 50.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.