TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6578…ba32

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
152
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Movies at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2544%11 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$186.69
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$419Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+160%+$670.69
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.24
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$125.2
Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.5
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.86
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$328.44
Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+37%+$16.47
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+212.5%+$71.4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+117.4%+$251.1
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$182.68
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$154.56
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$232.56
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$288
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$80.08
Khamenei public appearance by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$188.86
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$88.33
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+117.4%+$341.82
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.83
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$119.24
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+78.6%+$194.48
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$187.2
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$41.08
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+58.7%+$73.26
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+78.6%+$143
All 25 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.39
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.85
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.82
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$323.34
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$162.56
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$443Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$442.65
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$520.6
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+67.5%+$345.77
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$64.32
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$836Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+99.7%+$833.08
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$29.67
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$437.4
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+130.1%+$54.84
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.55
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.79
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$81.81
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$166.32
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.72
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.36
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$111
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.24
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$117.76
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.25
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$65.32
All 24 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT2128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,811Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,811.47
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.36
Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.21
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$12.22
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.81
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+267.9%+$332.04
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.1
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$130.2
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$239.4
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$95.06
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$54.76
Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$51.5
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$77.14
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$129.75
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$124.56
Will In Your Dreams be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$65.32
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$51.92
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$649Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$349.65
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$36.99
Will "Eden" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$106.88
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+122.2%+$337.7
All 21 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.44
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$34.44
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$784Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$304.92
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.19
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.88
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$316.55
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$210.9
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$272.8
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$18.69
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$222.74
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$103.23
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$360.8
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.64
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22.92
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$47.58
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+334.8%+$764.61
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$218.07
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$142.51
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+40.8%+$50.75
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$225.06
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+81.2%+$168.44
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$390.96
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$269.88
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+407.6%+$908.19
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.82
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$102.72
Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.75
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.66
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+25%+$47
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$286.8
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+25.2%+$59.33
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$106.56
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$52.56
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$764.31
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$205.66
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$79.36
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$580.9
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+164.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+300%+$345.75
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.16
Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$413.82
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$249.34
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+703.2%+$1,512.86
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.9
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.54
Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+58.7%+$213.86
Will PLN win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$65.28
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+72%+$187.18
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+312.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$26.4
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$170.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$46.4
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$202.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.78
Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+177.8%+$586.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+95.3%+$181.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$572Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$281.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+29.4%+$110.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$572Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$161.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$128.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 2 knockdowns during Paul vs Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$48.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5)backed Real Oviedo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$93.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$107.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$579.55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.