TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$233,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,350 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 494 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9939…d3bebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No51c5,562$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.412038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes2c3,040$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.89535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed Yes0c2,521$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes51c2,274$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.9711851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes66c2,109$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.351650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.9916638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c3…9cefbacked No65c1,700$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.531844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes27c1,618$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.481216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked No53c1,532$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.161957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+58.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes41c1,486$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.26825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed Yes65c1,423$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.952020%4 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-56.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes62c1,411$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.993246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes44c1,353$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.7360%0 W · 36 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf350…d50ebacked Yes3c1,316$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No37c1,310$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.423545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed Yes39c1,233$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.87520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c1,200$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed Yes26c1,191$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.811656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No35c1,159$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.3545843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes53c1,143$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.9410451%53 W · 51 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e7c…5a5fbacked No36c1,140$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.6560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No61c1,122$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.582429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No44c1,082$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.6211350.4%57 W · 56 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No33c1,047$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.34850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked No33c1,039$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.721241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8920…bdb2backed No45c1,021$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.334161%25 W · 16 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+261.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes39c971$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.691250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes51c970.33$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.3712654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5cbe…04b4backed No69c968$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.08425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x541a…1740backed No69c960$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.6742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d7…0217backed No35c958$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.71233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af9…2cdbbacked No34c955$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.09825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed No51c926$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.992759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No33c909.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.81040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked No33c906$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.021643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf580…7fadbacked Yes42c900.34$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.722532%8 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes65c877$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.05850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes66c862$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.921844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+86.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72f4…3d96backed Yes7c857$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.581947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f69…49ddbacked No51c829.99$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f2…6a72backed No34c827$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed No56c793$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.751338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes62c789$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.1850%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed No45c783$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.212152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88f1…8e46backed Yes25c780$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes55c774$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.72437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d93…f70abacked Yes65c772.91$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005060%30 W · 20 L+6.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0278…00e6backed Yes39c762$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.181145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid+35.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes60c754.36$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.665736.8%21 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed No74c754$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.041060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No33c747$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.491040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed Yes66c745$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked No33c741$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.471855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2756…42efbacked Yes28c726$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.281650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked No72c726$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.282045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5f…81c0backed No38c724$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.18944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4744…e229backed Yes26c713$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.381747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed No35c709$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.16862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+55.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf907…e7dbbacked Yes26c703$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f3d…9ef2backed Yes71c701$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed No74c694$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.44580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+92.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed Yes66c688$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c687.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.594928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed Yes28c687$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.36933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf100…2fcabacked Yes62c655$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.11145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed No36c654$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.562544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes38c650.93$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed Yes67c646$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.821729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9818…7cd3backed No61c641$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.991553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked Yes38c636$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.642259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes31c630$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.32025%5 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-52.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfc94…efd5backed Yes54c628$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No34c627$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.982254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed No35c626$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.91060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes49c626$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.761656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes67c624.75$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4171338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd001…3ceabacked Yes45c623$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes65c616$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes67c614$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed Yes38c612$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.562544%11 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed No34c610$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.61030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed No33c601$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.671741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed Yes45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2704934.7%17 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No40c600$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36024234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked No32c599.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.991833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd845…48d5backed Yes33c599.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes55c597.43$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.4135347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes25c594$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.54652.2%24 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7786…7914backed Yes43c594$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.42966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked No35c589$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+88%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked Yes67c588$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.962458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes67c587$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.291513.3%2 W · 13 L-5.1wins-0.34per pick47cpaid-73.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes67c586$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.621735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes65c585$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.252128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked Yes66c579$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.14875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed No46c569$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.261442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5384…e021backed No48c568$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No33c566$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.321163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+68%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa680…c13fbacked Yes31c564$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.841250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.