TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb547…a237

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
186
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Weather, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 58 out of 100; worst Movies at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT2857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$30.42
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$95.85
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.35
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.8
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+293%+$1,335.33
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.24
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$185.83
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$164.82
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$792Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+100.7%+$797.72
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.63
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.04
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$211.75
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$20.8
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$121.73
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+412.8%+$135.24
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.13
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+122.8%+$375.29
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.36
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+203%+$74.37
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$370.43
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.77
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.59
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.31
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$95.4
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$6.21
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.05
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.57
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$617Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$228.39
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$32.76
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$402.6
Will Emma Stone attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.33
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$37.76
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$148.68
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$32.77
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$212.47
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+334.8%+$235.62
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+122.2%+$50.6
Will Arco be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$79.18
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$55.16
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$111
Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$111.94
Will Hamnet win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$163.2
Will Pluribus win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$28.56
Will Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) win Best Actress – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$37.8
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$21.32
Will "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$112.05
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$73.8
Will Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$123.69
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+49.3%+$185.13
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$411.81
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$88.45
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$511Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$401.72
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,061Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,060.52
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$564.68
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,436Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$531.09
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$574Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$322.92
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,086Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$271.4
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+354.5%+$36.66
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$83.58
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+614.3%+$381.84
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$553.38
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+123.2%+$432.21
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$17.28
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$16.39
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$113.44
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$28.35
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.65
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+132.6%+$25.08
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$48.88
Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+434.9%+$218.71
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+85.2%+$12.88
All 21 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$264.24
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.17
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.75
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$688Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$745.16
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$338.52
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.67
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+161.1%+$547.92
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.31
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$762Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$762.46
Google Gemini Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+38.9%+$145.6
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.46
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+104.1%+$86.7
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100%+$19.5
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.76
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$73.32
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$47.56
Will: Canelo Alvarez be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30.14
All 17 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+40.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Weather — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$164.75
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.08
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$234.9
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$71.4
Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+203%+$145.39
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+88.7%+$255.21
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.9%+$104.72
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$396Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+81.8%+$324
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+108.3%+$538.2
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$112
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+372.7%+$90.67
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$219.25
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.52
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+104.1%+$13.77
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$33.66
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+79.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$440.88
Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.5
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.44
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$1,612.38
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.84
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.05
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$152.88
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+30.2%+$84.25
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$668Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+117.7%+$786.04
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win less than 12% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$14.63
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+809.1%+$611.43
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+104.1%+$83.25
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+25%+$2.6
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.45
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$311.58
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+400%+$180
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.12
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 70% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.72
Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.85
Will Jesse Jackson Jr. be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,024Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+171.3%+$1,754.12
Will John Cornyn come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$55.99
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$51.52
Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by Jan 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$43.87
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+222.6%+$140.35
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.6
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.55
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$100.45
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$28.09
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$82.13
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$404Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+33.3%+$134.75
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$160.27
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+58.7%+$306.36
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+426.3%+$261.63
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+212.5%+$174.76
Will Infrared launch a token by September 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$86.48
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+94%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-77.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+285%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.13
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$425Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$271.83
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$42.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$78.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+316.7%+$138.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+266.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+266.3%+$48.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+61.3%+$52.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+31.6%+$9.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$38.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.