Token Launches · resolved market
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d06d610c6a1f36bd6a1fc3048abce45224be854f7bd5f25dba0ada295878106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 4c | 6,386$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked No | 9c | 6,278$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.82 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 1c | 5,067$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 1c | 3,190$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dd…e4a3backed No | 6c | 2,800$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,097$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,662$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…7837backed No | 3c | 1,528$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,475$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed No | 11c | 1,410$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 1c | 1,310$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…f896backed No | 1c | 1,130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…967cbacked No | 4c | 1,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 1,082$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…3ae6backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 9c | 878$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 9c | 821$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed No | 11c | 804$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65a…b3aebacked No | 2c | 774.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed No | 11c | 760$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 9c | 757$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 9c | 718.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 5c | 533.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 11c | 460$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 11c | 441$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 11c | 416$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…bb86backed No | 7c | 359.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 328.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 11c | 309$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 266.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…8c95backed No | 11c | 206.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 8c | 195$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 12c | 158$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +81%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed No | 13c | 86.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?this page
- Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.