Token Launches · resolved market
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9fb2da5ea97d1e0888c610a7fefe3de606b6adcc68cb071f08bb2a864499fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 7c | 5,642$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.6 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 2c | 3,121$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x493d…0348backed Yes | 27c | 3,086$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…c26fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,594$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf019…bcd4backed Yes | 10c | 2,580$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…3e00backed Yes | 13c | 2,282$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 18c | 1,650$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.99 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,613$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,547$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…d90abacked Yes | 12c | 1,200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -78%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 11c | 1,189$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,110$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…3ae6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…ba27backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 10c | 868.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…4635backed Yes | 2c | 850.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…2828backed Yes | 12c | 803.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 486.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed Yes | 22c | 456.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 411.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 361.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…187fbacked Yes | 6c | 287.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 5c | 221.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 8c | 158.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…81e2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f5d6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…c77fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…5ff5backed No | 77c | 63.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.