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Token Launches · resolved market

Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$205,566
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,566 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee67…67a6backed No2c8,305$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.512061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e3…d0debacked No0c5,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-81.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1549…46f6backed No24c5,056$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.485343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c5,045$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.677663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x776b…7251backed No4c4,865$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.394341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No4c4,204$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.943622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5bdd…c9a9backed No6c4,085$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.744736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe6c…69b7backed No12c3,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4352133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No6c3,019$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.1713131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed No3c3,015$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9513124.4%32 W · 99 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed No8c3,013$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.566937.7%26 W · 43 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+87.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No1c2,950$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.65822.4%13 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No2c2,732$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4520750.7%105 W · 102 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dfc…df63backed No7c2,700$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8168…7837backed No8c2,144$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.082850%14 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed Yes70c2,138$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No11c2,067$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.09205%1 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-82.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No7c2,061$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.115941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9564…3a32backed No11c2,038$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.523636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed No35c2,025$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed No10c2,004$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.246127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked No2c2,003$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd08…80acbacked No10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa09b…071ebacked No7c1,900$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.637418.9%14 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick24cpaid+35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No11c1,783$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20214437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No32c1,718$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.996927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No2c1,700$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.151442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No40c1,530$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick25cpaid+455.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No4c1,514$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.13710.8%4 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-82.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ba9…05c1backed No1c1,495$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x646a…4635backed No2c1,486$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.122040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb555…83e5backed Yes65c1,423$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked No2c1,321$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2311421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…a432backed Yes65c1,300$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c1,296$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.363283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1bf…80dabacked No2c1,246$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No3c1,209$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.51541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed No18c1,135$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.94528.9%13 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x00b6…6c5cbacked Yes70c1,114$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No6c1,112$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.382541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes68c1,069$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.184729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No4c1,060$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.932910.3%3 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…3ae6backed No21c1,050$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes69c1,004$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.24944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905347.2%25 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No5c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.82442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed Yes68c999$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed No35c974$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f61…c03ebacked No54c944$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes46c944$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+223.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked No16c937.81$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.68850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked Yes60c928$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No31c892$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-74.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked No12c880$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.23534.3%12 W · 23 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-47.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd18d…e7b4backed No21c874.6$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805425.9%14 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No31c835$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed No29c807$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No3c795.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.93400%0 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked Yes71c792$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d1…62c2backed No3c787.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.088558.8%50 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb81d…1272backed No12c750.76$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.551266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+43.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No30c736$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed No30c710$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b6f…6890backed No30c692$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes60c687$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No40c674.99$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2729442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc57a…ee16backed No8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b69…6622backed Yes52c615$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+225.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e9…40dfbacked No16c611.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No13c600$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.825320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…b3a5backed No24c600$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c599.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73b6…5db1backed No3c598.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.295127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a76…c4e9backed No6c585.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.84647.8%22 W · 24 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+52.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x0adb…69a3backed No4c535.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes78c514$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.13775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No2c500.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked No15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.8wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+76.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No28c499.94$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4312528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aac…c3e9backed No15c498.64$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd2…dab5backed No24c487.87$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes65c427.34$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.273262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed Yes56c400$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1777657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x58a5…c4e3backed No16c400$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed No15c396.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8610246.1%47 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No39c389.4$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5036…187fbacked Yes76c343.05$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.051060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No48c321$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-36.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No15c315.51$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.593495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedaa…5786backed No55c300$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.174643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…ba27backed No21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3359…2273backed No48c294$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa125…2761backed No15c274.09$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.873148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98b5…416abacked No10c268.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc0…3f53backed No12c256.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes74c247$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.976931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No10c231$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.14333%1 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd3…30c5backed No8c226.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.321435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No37c212.56$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.614548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98f9…3386backed Yes47c211.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.94837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.