Token Launches · resolved market
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e35bda8326140c40f3017600ed9f4358010634926638df9089026282487a8e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 8,305$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.51 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…d0debacked No | 0c | 5,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed No | 24c | 5,056$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.48 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 5,045$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed No | 4c | 4,865$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 4c | 4,204$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.94 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 6c | 4,085$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.74 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…69b7backed No | 12c | 3,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 6c | 3,019$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.17 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 3c | 3,015$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 131 | 24.4%32 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 8c | 3,013$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.56 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 1c | 2,950$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 2c | 2,732$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 207 | 50.7%105 W · 102 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…df63backed No | 7c | 2,700$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…7837backed No | 8c | 2,144$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 70c | 2,138$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 11c | 2,067$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.09 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 7c | 2,061$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 11c | 2,038$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.52 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed No | 35c | 2,025$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 10c | 2,004$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked No | 2c | 2,003$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…80acbacked No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked No | 7c | 1,900$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.63 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 11c | 1,783$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 32c | 1,718$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.99 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 1,700$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 40c | 1,530$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 4c | 1,514$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…05c1backed No | 1c | 1,495$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…4635backed No | 2c | 1,486$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 65c | 1,423$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 2c | 1,321$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed Yes | 65c | 1,300$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 1,296$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bf…80dabacked No | 2c | 1,246$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,209$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed No | 18c | 1,135$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…6c5cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,114$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 1,112$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 68c | 1,069$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.18 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 4c | 1,060$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…3ae6backed No | 21c | 1,050$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 69c | 1,004$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 68c | 999$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 35c | 974$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked No | 54c | 944$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 46c | 944$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +223.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 16c | 937.81$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 60c | 928$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 31c | 892$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 12c | 880$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 21c | 874.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 31c | 835$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 29c | 807$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 3c | 795.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 71c | 792$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 3c | 787.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…1272backed No | 12c | 750.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 30c | 736$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 30c | 710$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed No | 30c | 692$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 60c | 687$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 40c | 674.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…ee16backed No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 52c | 615$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +225.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…40dfbacked No | 16c | 611.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 13c | 600$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…b3a5backed No | 24c | 600$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 2c | 599.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 3c | 598.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…c4e9backed No | 6c | 585.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…69a3backed No | 4c | 535.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes | 78c | 514$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 2c | 500.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 28c | 499.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aac…c3e9backed No | 15c | 498.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…dab5backed No | 24c | 487.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 65c | 427.34$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 56c | 400$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…c4e3backed No | 16c | 400$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 15c | 396.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 39c | 389.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…187fbacked Yes | 76c | 343.05$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 48c | 321$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 315.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 55c | 300$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.17 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…ba27backed No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 48c | 294$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…2761backed No | 15c | 274.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…416abacked No | 10c | 268.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…3f53backed No | 12c | 256.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 74c | 247$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 10c | 231$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…30c5backed No | 8c | 226.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 37c | 212.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…3386backed Yes | 47c | 211.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.