Token Launches · resolved market
Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb53a092314b7e827319875ab8c9074272222e549db95373ff683b52d101b71f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 37c | 8,968$3,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,285.93 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 63c | 4,470$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.97 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 38c | 4,389$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.34 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 34c | 4,000$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,635 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…3e00backed Yes | 67c | 3,319$2,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf019…bcd4backed Yes | 32c | 2,856$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,650$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 61c | 2,426$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.88 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 42c | 2,311$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.97 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 52c | 2,205$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.52 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…d90abacked Yes | 64c | 2,092$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -78%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,782$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.94 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 24c | 1,692$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.48 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…187fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,655$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed Yes | 56c | 1,641$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.87 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…6c5cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,594$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…f0d6backed No | 52c | 1,495$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 52c | 1,475$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.12 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,468$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 44c | 1,419$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.57 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…90dcbacked Yes | 54c | 1,419$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…7582backed Yes | 73c | 1,374$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 61c | 1,301$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.43 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 50c | 1,290$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.1 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa41e…7d70backed Yes | 54c | 1,289$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf81…2e35backed Yes | 4c | 1,210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,110$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.83 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,107$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.59 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.99 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked Yes | 40c | 999.92$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.97 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e1…c852backed No | 68c | 877.15$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 41c | 799.99$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 35c | 798.36$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.39 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe354…e1febacked No | 33c | 763.16$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 61c | 763.02$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.21 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…e628backed No | 67c | 698.48$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.56 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed No | 46c | 617.38$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.34 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…c4e3backed No | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…6ee6backed No | 42c | 599.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…80acbacked No | 62c | 591.64$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.02 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…0de9backed No | 47c | 542$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes | 30c | 541.53$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…a770backed No | 51c | 477.5$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 45c | 425.59$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked No | 55c | 422.35$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.38 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…eebabacked Yes | 64c | 402.41$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…5ff5backed No | 38c | 397.35$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…3386backed Yes | 25c | 397.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…18ddbacked No | 53c | 379.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…1272backed Yes | 18c | 343.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…c21dbacked Yes | 46c | 330$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…770bbacked No | 61c | 328.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 72c | 322.71$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a40…1c7ebacked Yes | 63c | 318.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 24c | 314$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 40c | 296.16$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 7c | 295.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 287.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 36c | 269$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 36c | 239.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…40dfbacked Yes | 47c | 234.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed Yes | 40c | 219.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked No | 33c | 215.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 34c | 210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x114b…521dbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 56c | 198.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…be79backed Yes | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…ff8dbacked Yes | 25c | 189.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 79c | 186.5$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 50c | 179.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 36c | 178.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…4189backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 151.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 69c | 149.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 70c | 142.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked No | 50c | 134.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 133.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed Yes | 40c | 127.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f14…d00abacked Yes | 33c | 126.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 42c | 120.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd223…5ec2backed No | 48c | 112$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3f…cf4dbacked Yes | 49c | 107.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…8858backed Yes | 40c | 106.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +207.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 66c | 106$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 78c | 102.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed Yes | 75c | 102.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 18c | 102.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf4…2e25backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd972…c9f4backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…5483backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0474…9ffabacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.