TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb555…83e5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: La Liga, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$40.87
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$431.46
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.65
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$821Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$368.9
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.79
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.99
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.82
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$701Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$361.08
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.76
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+163.2%+$403.62
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$643Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$617.89
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$146.88
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.5
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$89.46
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.2
Will "AI" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$552.15
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.24
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.56
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$305.25
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+42.9%+$108.3
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+117.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+290%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RCD Mallorca leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+669.2%+$192.27
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+92.3%+$186.72
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+108.3%+$204.88
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+77.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.78
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$925Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$498.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JD Gaming qualify to MSI 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.08
Will Tyler1 shave his head by June 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$514.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+426.3%+$203.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$301.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the number of US flights delayed on April 6 be between 6,000 and 6,500?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.