Middle East · resolved market
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a44e4842d6b17b93ee47aa744c82c2cb5399c05cf53e7198279ad602dfaa59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 11c | 1,505$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 80c | 1,220$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…e173backed No | 67c | 1,120$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 74c | 897$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 20c | 895$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 20c | 890$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 26c | 885$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 26c | 857$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 74c | 845$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 58c | 765$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 42c | 765$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed No | 58c | 630$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…fc69backed No | 80c | 565$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 65c | 460.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 15c | 424.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 42c | 332$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 10c | 331.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes | 42c | 273$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 198.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 159.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 43c | 144$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 57c | 144$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed No | 73c | 136.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed Yes | 19c | 121$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 14c | 100.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd6…9897backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 99.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e5a1backed Yes | 25c | 90.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 22c | 86.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 81.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…43eabacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 55c | 51.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…2ca0backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…382dbacked Yes | 54c | 31.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 27.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 56c | 23.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d5…fb20backed Yes | 52c | 20.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by March 31?Yes won
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.