TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,149 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe44…d604backed No0c11,655$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f06…73c7backed No0c11,655$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9383…65dfbacked No0c11,655$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523b…c25ebacked No0c11,655$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc2…35adbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1189…1860backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb388…d0a1backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac02…99c5backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…3fe1backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02de…6469backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…ee88backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb827…664abacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe362…0a47backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe536…b501backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3687…49f5backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd42…eb82backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x184e…7984backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8383…476fbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc6…80c9backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13e…d47dbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2724…7490backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c2…b38fbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4018…1bc8backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e67…2279backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3adc…5aeabacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…7340backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ea…bd60backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd8…38a7backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb24…b4debacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5db…60eabacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e4…1517backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee55…1babbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0351…430cbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a74…f4bdbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…36cbbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebe…81b7backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1efd…1edebacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd008…5630backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37df…cd2abacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac6…d5b6backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ae…927bbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd12…8bcfbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9041…d1cfbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4117…8cd4backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ef…0607backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a8…60a3backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ab…f0dfbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735a…8097backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f5…c3fbbacked No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f8…2175backed No0c10,405$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e85…8aaabacked No0c10,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347517.3%13 W · 62 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b7…c7f1backed Yes8c8,247$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,587.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,092$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.791,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e32…18e6backed Yes8c3,740$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,440.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed No4c3,581$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8211454.4%62 W · 52 L+15.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No1c2,026$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No1c1,450$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.74928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed No24c1,405$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.7311833.9%40 W · 78 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes80c1,127$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8111850%59 W · 59 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick2cpaid+900%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes68c408.86$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.245745.6%26 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No3c400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0514724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d82…8bb6backed No7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No3c355$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6550130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed No36c324.3$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.253135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No17c317$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.57817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No9c270$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3932345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked No24c200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes38c157.39$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0829129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No22c156$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.529040%36 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.754136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes50c99.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4213246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes58c96.13$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3720749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No30c89.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9931728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No19c76.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No28c75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2113228%37 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No33c53.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8221631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510341.7%43 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked No51c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2210520%21 W · 84 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-57.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xba01…2722backed Yes55c19.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.771978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.