Middle East · resolved market
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde4e35d9c11c61db828bcdb303ce1d431a0aaca2bb8ab5c7719e59d86ca76462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 55c | 2,674$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.17 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 62c | 1,232$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 73c | 864$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 27c | 809$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…fc69backed Yes | 27c | 767$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed No | 73c | 712$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Yes | 55c | 635.39$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 38c | 633$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.46 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed No | 38c | 599$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 48c | 432.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.96 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bd…c016backed Yes | 17c | 395.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 48c | 313$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d5…fb20backed Yes | 49c | 278.6$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 24c | 269$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 63c | 252.36$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed No | 69c | 248.52$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 241$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed Yes | 4c | 233.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 24c | 207.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 63c | 197.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 193.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…e173backed Yes | 48c | 165.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 12c | 144.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 31c | 118.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 79c | 117.43$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 39c | 116$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 112.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked Yes | 49c | 107.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7501…9edbbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…e02bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed Yes | 22c | 94.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 62c | 86.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 83.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 64c | 53.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…cfd8backed Yes | 40c | 50.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 35c | 48.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 43.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 33c | 37.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed Yes | 64c | 32.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 29.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 42c | 28.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf71…b1d2backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…24d3backed Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 22.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by March 31?Yes won
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.