Middle East · resolved market
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d281c6412c2d281508353534ce442e959cd64c0d6e0791184185c029a3a2950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ca2…5818backed No | 57c | 42,800$24,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,404 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…ae73backed Yes | 43c | 42,796$18,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,402.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 78c | 6,708$5,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.72 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fd…3144backed Yes | 4c | 2,245$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,808$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,722$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 13c | 1,693$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.42 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 9c | 1,669$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 16c | 655.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 600.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8e…df5cbacked Yes | 18c | 547$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…141ebacked No | 76c | 508$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 452$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 19c | 403.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 394.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 27c | 377.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes | 43c | 358$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 28c | 327.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb565…0921backed Yes | 15c | 319.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…70cbbacked Yes | 12c | 309.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 282.15$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 6c | 268.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 11c | 260.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 8c | 251.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 71c | 250$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.77 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…5a0dbacked Yes | 11c | 249.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 241.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 13c | 206.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…9beabacked Yes | 27c | 198.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…04edbacked Yes | 27c | 185.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 78c | 181.49$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 10c | 172.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 158.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 7c | 149.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 57c | 123$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 57c | 122$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 10c | 121.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 10c | 115.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 57c | 113$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 111.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 110.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 105.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 27c | 103.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…ae61backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa564…4d08backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 35c | 95.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 76c | 89.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 42c | 87.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 31c | 81.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 78c | 77.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 35c | 60.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 26c | 59.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 74c | 52.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x135e…a4b5backed No | 39c | 51.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…3036backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc00…5cefbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +117%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…b5e8backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032d…3714backed Yes | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 39c | 44.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…12cebacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…b11dbacked No | 55c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by March 31?Yes won
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.