TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe6c2…7f19

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 63 out of 100; worst La Liga at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+140.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$608.43
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$697.08
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$52.46
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+49.3%+$95.7
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+300%+$687.75
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+354.5%+$141.18
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.8
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$134
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+150%+$59.4
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+284.6%+$304.14
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+157.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$248.1
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.85
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$1,038.7
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$173.09
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$314.07
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$129.8
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$378.12
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+112.8%+$204.58
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick33cpaid+251.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+127.3%+$588.56
Will Galatasaray advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+376.2%+$229.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+96.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club (-1.5)backed Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$192.93
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+49.3%+$110.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$76.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$185.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$137.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$582Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$581.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NEC win on 2026-01-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$174.16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.