Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3998a4054e04c0b451ec281cebf106847c54a7abd45a45d53ec5d0d9d16ce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,887$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.37 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed Yes | 8c | 1,791$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,476$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 41c | 1,415$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 28c | 1,246$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed Yes | 30c | 1,207$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 77c | 1,206$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 64c | 1,085$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 48c | 1,032$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 35c | 993$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 26c | 993$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.82 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 23c | 991$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 39c | 989$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 26c | 965$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.9 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 78c | 960$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 22c | 888$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 29c | 841$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 72c | 815$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 36c | 807$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 48c | 795$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 74c | 778$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 71c | 754$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 32c | 745.51$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 35c | 723$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked No | 65c | 723$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…d6debacked Yes | 35c | 722$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked No | 65c | 710$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 52c | 695$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 43c | 685$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked No | 65c | 685$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 50c | 683$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 67c | 656$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 70c | 643$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 61c | 619$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 70c | 564$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed Yes | 65c | 563$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 50c | 558$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 518.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 30c | 511$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 71c | 508$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 44c | 504$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 74c | 502$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 26c | 496$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed No | 74c | 496$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 36c | 482$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 64c | 482$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 52c | 472$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed No | 66c | 468$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 34c | 468$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 36c | 451$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed No | 64c | 451$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 51c | 450$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 45c | 446$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.3 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 71c | 444$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 440.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 72c | 431$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes | 70c | 405$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 41c | 402.49$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed Yes | 49c | 398$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 29c | 384$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 56c | 383$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 20c | 381$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 80c | 381$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 29c | 378$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 61c | 370$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 71c | 365$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed No | 29c | 360$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 350.75$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 57c | 349$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked No | 67c | 334$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 52c | 323$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed No | 52c | 321$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 48c | 321$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 45c | 319$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 55c | 319$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 23c | 315$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 310.61$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…1df7backed Yes | 16c | 303.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 74c | 286$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 65c | 283$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 52c | 254$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 47c | 254$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 37c | 252$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 64c | 251.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 71c | 246$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 72c | 245.12$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.91 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 52c | 241.93$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.34 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 78c | 232$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 231.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 35c | 226$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 49c | 223$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 51c | 223$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 35c | 210$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 74c | 205$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 49c | 204.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd1…4649backed Yes | 11c | 191.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 74c | 187$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…acfabacked Yes | 35c | 186$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked Yes | 22c | 177$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe669…df30backed Yes | 35c | 176$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?this page
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?Yes won
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.