Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a362cc924934cddfec099cf2428d949c063270f9f15ccebc52a0241db23b10a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed No | 3c | 2,229$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 29c | 1,499$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 79c | 1,114$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.91 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 26c | 1,062$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 74c | 1,020$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 45c | 1,016$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 61c | 995$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 65c | 934$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.94 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 27c | 931.21$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 20c | 906$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 12c | 892.85$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 55c | 892$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 30c | 879$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 1c | 862.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 46c | 857$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.78 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 54c | 857$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 64c | 817$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 16c | 806$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 43c | 798$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 30c | 794$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 71c | 791$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 17c | 775$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 29c | 764$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 39c | 755$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.55 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 41c | 726$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 78c | 712$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 59c | 701$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa27…d1d3backed Yes | 23c | 697$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 19c | 692$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 32c | 661$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 68c | 661$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ad32backed Yes | 27c | 654$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 71c | 641$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 70c | 636$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 30c | 630$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 41c | 608$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 50c | 607.68$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.94 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 59c | 585$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 70c | 570$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 38c | 559$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 557.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 53c | 550.24$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed Yes | 37c | 548$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 59c | 526$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 57c | 498$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 61c | 496$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 39c | 496$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed No | 80c | 479$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 64c | 444$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 18c | 439$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.98 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 61c | 435$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 39c | 415$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.15 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 73c | 415$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 39c | 414$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 29c | 412$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64d…00aebacked No | 49c | 406.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked Yes | 32c | 403$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 44c | 402$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.91 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 70c | 401$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 41c | 397$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 59c | 397$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 391.4$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 77c | 366$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed Yes | 25c | 365$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 61c | 355$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 18c | 345$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 77c | 331$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 75c | 319$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 25c | 319$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 63c | 314$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed No | 70c | 309$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked No | 61c | 307.4$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 32c | 297$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 29c | 289$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked No | 71c | 289$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 39c | 283$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 61c | 283$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.63 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 37c | 275$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 20c | 273$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…b2f4backed No | 80c | 273$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 15c | 272.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 79c | 271$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 41c | 270$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 74c | 265.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 37c | 261$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed Yes | 41c | 251$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed No | 71c | 245$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 80c | 239$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 70c | 229$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 67c | 206.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 191.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 80c | 188$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 63c | 178$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 173.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 73c | 171$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 39c | 162.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7016…19c5backed Yes | 40c | 162$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?this page
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.