TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0278…00e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid+35.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.45
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.28
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$676Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$489.3
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$429Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$310.38
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$295.12
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.07
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$673.55
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+733.3%+$382.8
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$297.18
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$576.45
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+72.4%+$113.82
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$284.4
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.95
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.58
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.81
Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$123.2
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.96
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$307.32
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+143.9%+$234.23
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.76
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+33.3%+$8.25
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$595Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+63.9%+$380.64
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.7
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$136.8
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.25
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.32
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.45 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$173.95
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.8
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$462
Will "Tariff" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$287.28
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$483.82
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$151.9
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+104.1%+$428.4
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid+35.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+65.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$89.76
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+400%+$145.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+100%+$52
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$112.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+334.8%+$70.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+127.3%+$255.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tundra Esports win ESL One Birmingham 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$353.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be fewer than 3 major space weather events this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$262.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguarsbacked Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hillary say "Bill" or "Clinton" during her Epstein testimony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$223.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 3DMAX qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$374
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Kathy" or "Hochul" during NYC rally?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South Africa win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$677Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$677.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,530Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,530.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.