Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe056c76772e5aa11281a64101f37556e908f53ced95a660f2ba3c62dd088e459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked No | 0c | 4,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x459c…7ebcbacked No | 2c | 3,872$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 18c | 3,223$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked Yes | 76c | 2,173$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.51 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 20c | 2,135$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 60c | 1,591$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 24c | 1,530$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.23 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 40c | 1,341$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 30c | 1,115$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 74c | 1,056$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 9c | 1,055$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed No | 18c | 914.92$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 74c | 878$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 73c | 808.74$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.38 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed Yes | 77c | 778.74$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 31c | 707.21$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 73c | 697$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed No | 27c | 697$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed No | 55c | 574$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 26c | 552$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 24c | 532.35$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked No | 26c | 504$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 66c | 500.91$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 26c | 464$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 55c | 445$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 26c | 414$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 22c | 372.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 27c | 331.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 45c | 316$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 25c | 274$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 75c | 274$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed Yes | 75c | 266.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 45c | 258$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked Yes | 71c | 229.37$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 45c | 224$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 223.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 45c | 221$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 20c | 215.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 172.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 72c | 162.62$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…cf9dbacked Yes | 50c | 139.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…25febacked Yes | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 128.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked No | 15c | 124.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 22c | 123.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 106.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 14c | 99.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…92f2backed No | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c13…bceebacked No | 26c | 86.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 22c | 79.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 25c | 75.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 80c | 64.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 62.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…2c46backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 35c | 35.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…0acabacked Yes | 76c | 25.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12c…d30fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2847…952fbacked Yes | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…1da0backed Yes | 62c | 16.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1625 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.