Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02253a11cb5da8ab84795d339b5868b84ed294a9c9d86699e538a67dbe78f2d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 5c | 2,558$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 2,453$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…6747backed No | 1c | 1,934$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 1,822$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,612$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 8c | 1,612$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 36c | 1,303$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,012$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 24c | 860.44$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 48c | 528$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 48c | 508$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 6c | 451$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 64c | 450$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 64c | 436$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed Yes | 64c | 417$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 37c | 413$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 63c | 412$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 63c | 393$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 37c | 391$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 52c | 378$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 37c | 377$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 63c | 376$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 5c | 358.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 343.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed Yes | 52c | 329$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 52c | 329$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 5c | 311.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 5c | 310$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…cfdbbacked No | 7c | 251.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 6c | 219.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed Yes | 57c | 183$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 38c | 168.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed No | 7c | 149.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc154…04b2backed Yes | 78c | 128.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 43c | 96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 61c | 95.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked No | 43c | 87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 50c | 50.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…25febacked Yes | 50c | 39.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Yes | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1625 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.