Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x867ea03e4f9886749c47a52f3e997e87d8aa842cf0f09cd5adb52e349ea16d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 8c | 9,906$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 17c | 4,125$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,746$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 2,158$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.11 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed No | 64c | 1,636$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 11c | 1,264$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.96 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes | 32c | 1,234$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed No | 71c | 1,147$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 23c | 922.66$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed Yes | 31c | 870.38$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 861.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 80c | 754$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 20c | 754$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 79c | 750.38$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.05 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 37c | 681.39$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.91 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed No | 66c | 649.55$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 575.37$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.12 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 36c | 564$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 36c | 558$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 36c | 524$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 490.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed No | 67c | 438$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 67c | 430$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 16c | 396$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 29c | 393$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes | 29c | 388$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed No | 61c | 329.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 305.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +350%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 297.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…1222backed Yes | 8c | 295.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 262$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…5312backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 243.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 25c | 235$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 222.96$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe33…47d8backed Yes | 41c | 222.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 12c | 215.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 197.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +247.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 140.23$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d66…05a3backed Yes | 37c | 134.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 39c | 129.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…25febacked Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…c536backed Yes | 11c | 118.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +249.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c13…bceebacked Yes | 19c | 94.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…fa87backed No | 63c | 92.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 86.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…9930backed No | 64c | 77.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…f65cbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 73.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…3176backed Yes | 38c | 66.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…56e4backed Yes | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…0acabacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…0d8fbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…83dcbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…475dbacked No | 63c | 47.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…7385backed Yes | 39c | 42.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…ef62backed Yes | 42c | 35.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…f082backed Yes | 38c | 35.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…cf9dbacked Yes | 36c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 63c | 31.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…9764backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1625 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.