TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xde62…64f6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+78.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+150%+$475.8
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$68.32
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$704Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$704.34
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$345.95
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.56
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$153.3
Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$83.17
Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$688Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$687.99
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$260.28
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$130.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+66.1%+$158.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gen.G complete the League of Legends “Golden Road” in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$614Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$275.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,329Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$383.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Woody Allen be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$103.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$363.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$68.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$484.16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.