Commodities · resolved market
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https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f617fc1ca752ffe8f2e99d3fa4c7ad5fc6bde1517d01946f6c9adb230fc343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 12c | 3,277$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,172$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.81 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 71c | 1,538$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 12c | 1,392$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked Yes | 12c | 1,333$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 26c | 1,294$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.83 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,133$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 70c | 1,000$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.23 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 78c | 898.25$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 889.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 70c | 829.2$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 11c | 811.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 25c | 777$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 23c | 716.86$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.46 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…e034backed Yes | 29c | 679.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 76c | 654.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 24c | 641.36$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.89 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 12c | 633$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 595.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 73c | 559.85$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.75 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 29c | 554$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed Yes | 12c | 552$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed Yes | 29c | 547$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 535.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 29c | 534$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 17c | 509.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 75c | 500.14$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 18c | 499.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 471.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 12c | 430$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 12c | 430$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…9d34backed Yes | 26c | 421.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 418.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…40b5backed No | 75c | 411.74$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 410.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 408.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 10c | 408$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 12c | 403$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 78c | 399.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +38%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 73c | 370$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed Yes | 14c | 341.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 326.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 64c | 312.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…ab06backed Yes | 23c | 310.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…f6cebacked Yes | 18c | 281.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…18c5backed Yes | 18c | 280.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 75c | 280$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 75c | 263$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…49bdbacked Yes | 22c | 253.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 16c | 240.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…6d9bbacked Yes | 17c | 238.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 75c | 234$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…3d71backed Yes | 19c | 212.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…69debacked Yes | 26c | 211.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…3084backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 25c | 202.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 11c | 196.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked Yes | 26c | 194.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…af5abacked Yes | 11c | 179.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…53b2backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…c4c4backed Yes | 20c | 151.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…7b69backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 10c | 147.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 17c | 144.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 20c | 142.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…86eebacked Yes | 18c | 141.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 30c | 129.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…3920backed Yes | 21c | 123.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…1c06backed Yes | 25c | 119.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 66c | 116.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 113.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 13c | 108.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 22c | 108.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8462…b8bebacked Yes | 17c | 107.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8f…e62fbacked Yes | 10c | 100.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…8ca1backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1125…7a78backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 18c | 98.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 71c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…0880backed Yes | 21c | 94.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…f763backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 15c | 70.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed No | 73c | 68.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a1…0fffbacked No | 73c | 68.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?this page
- Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?No won
- Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.