Commodities · resolved market
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https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf180b03c37ec71e39126a111419b9c945a59e21f4c7e223a371e30fc59c6e22e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 57c | 1,987$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.56 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 71c | 1,961$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 66c | 1,928$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.61 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,819$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.98 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Yes | 47c | 1,585$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 20c | 1,580$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 34c | 1,345$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.85 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,287$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,270$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…3479backed Yes | 16c | 1,258$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 41c | 1,224$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 62c | 1,200$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 62c | 1,098$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.55 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 76c | 1,011$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 60c | 1,000$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.38 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 19c | 858$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 811.11$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e2…f317backed Yes | 12c | 811.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…69debacked Yes | 31c | 793.38$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 763.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd87…9f5cbacked Yes | 41c | 727.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 714.78$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 63c | 700$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 24c | 685$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 76c | 685$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 21c | 678.42$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.93 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 70c | 664$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed Yes | 29c | 663$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 29c | 654$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 29c | 644$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 62c | 623.91$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.88 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.48per pick | 42cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 62c | 621.7$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.55 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 599.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed No | 77c | 594.87$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 32c | 580.57$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes | 30c | 579$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 14c | 541.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 534.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 24c | 533$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 22c | 530.51$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19e9…aae5backed Yes | 38c | 525.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.42 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 68c | 499.9$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed Yes | 24c | 478$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed Yes | 22c | 470$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 75c | 448.48$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 48c | 416$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed Yes | 6c | 410$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.91 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…13b9backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 61c | 356.69$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…460abacked Yes | 24c | 354.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 61c | 344.96$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 73c | 328.25$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 323.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 68c | 323.39$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 37c | 315.64$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 59c | 310.75$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.73 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 35c | 298$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 66c | 287$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 72c | 278.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 60c | 274$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 37c | 271.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 28c | 260.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 39c | 257.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…d797backed Yes | 9c | 257.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…38babacked Yes | 45c | 255.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 42c | 245.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 240.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…14f8backed No | 59c | 216.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 52c | 198.08$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…a798backed No | 68c | 191.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 41c | 184.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +274.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e9…f158backed Yes | 6c | 174.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 173.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 58c | 164.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a2…6576backed Yes | 19c | 158.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 44c | 148.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 22c | 147.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…562fbacked Yes | 8c | 146.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54cf…8429backed Yes | 15c | 140.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 137.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 59c | 137.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed Yes | 44c | 134.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 24c | 121.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 59c | 119$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 39c | 118.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 43c | 112.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 55c | 108.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 15c | 107.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 23c | 106.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…94a3backed Yes | 63c | 103.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 101.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 70c | 101.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f3b5backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?this page
- Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?No won
- Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.