Commodities · resolved market
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https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0cf22a3a9ecbe4131e25cbe1273ee0345cd04c4bc50280c632acbab8bcd4000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 10c | 1,911$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 42c | 1,901$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 76c | 1,684$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.42 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,607$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,525$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.69 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,355$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,340$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 30c | 1,270$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.08 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 71c | 1,250$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes | 43c | 1,170$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 23c | 1,162$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 20c | 1,149$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 63c | 957.27$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.38 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 20c | 765.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…2763backed Yes | 27c | 750.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 702.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 660.67$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.49 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 63c | 652.98$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.16 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 59c | 592.25$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.25 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.48per pick | 42cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 566.84$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.61 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 17c | 533.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 19c | 528.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 8c | 526$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 512.19$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…a8bbbacked Yes | 2c | 509.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 475.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed No | 79c | 439.49$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 70c | 426.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 20c | 424.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 24c | 408.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 18c | 397.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 26c | 393$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…b217backed No | 77c | 385$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 77c | 377$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 347.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 25c | 336.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 37c | 325.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…aa0dbacked Yes | 8c | 306.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 295.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 73c | 278.6$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…49bdbacked Yes | 22c | 272.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 27c | 265.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 31c | 262.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 259.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 20c | 244.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…c4c4backed Yes | 16c | 243.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…87c3backed Yes | 22c | 236.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 17c | 221.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 219.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 40c | 215.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…574abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 184.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 70c | 179.36$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 72c | 177.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 71c | 177$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 35c | 166$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7940…ba82backed Yes | 42c | 163.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 60c | 158.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 10c | 150.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 73c | 147.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 24c | 145$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 135.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 44c | 128.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…01c5backed Yes | 49c | 122.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…9fb0backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…37aabacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 48c | 110.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…d6cfbacked Yes | 9c | 107.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e36…d032backed Yes | 28c | 100.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 70c | 93.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…2778backed Yes | 27c | 92.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 65c | 87.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +274.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 50c | 86.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 51c | 84.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e07…dffbbacked Yes | 24c | 84.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…2b1ebacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 59c | 79.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 27c | 75.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a1…2e04backed Yes | 57c | 70.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…b9b3backed No | 60c | 68.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…c4cfbacked Yes | 30c | 66.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 54c | 62.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…d7a0backed Yes | 22c | 57.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b4…f3c1backed No | 63c | 55.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf620…cd42backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 56c | 50.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…35febacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?this page
- Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?No won
- Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.