TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,848 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2779…239abacked Yes10c1,911$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.691250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+78.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes42c1,901$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.011315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No76c1,684$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.424170.7%29 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,607$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.011,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes26c1,525$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.693315.2%5 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes11c1,355$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.24128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-89.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes10c1,340$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes30c1,270$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.08488.3%4 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-75.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No71c1,250$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.62638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.8wins-0.22per pick61cpaid-45.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes43c1,170$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes23c1,162$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes20c1,149$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.171428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No63c957.27$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.387860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes20c765.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ca…2763backed Yes27c750.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c702.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.611035.8%6 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c660.67$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.4930839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No63c652.98$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.164035%14 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No59c592.25$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.251090%9 W · 1 L+4.8wins+0.48per pick42cpaid+171.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No54c566.84$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.614669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x424a…04cebacked Yes17c533.75$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.742222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-44.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes19c528.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes8c526$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.134136.6%15 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c512.19$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2523846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x292e…a8bbbacked Yes2c509.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c475.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.66765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eba…ffa3backed No79c439.49$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.711250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No70c426.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.421850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes20c424.98$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes24c408.57$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.068637.2%32 W · 54 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed Yes18c397.29$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes26c393$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.152035%7 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7485…b217backed No77c385$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked No77c377$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c347.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.922324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed Yes25c336.52$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed Yes37c325.36$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.296526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e59…aa0dbacked Yes8c306.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes10c295.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.44914.3%7 W · 42 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked No73c278.6$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.223050%15 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…49bdbacked Yes22c272.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7770%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes27c265.33$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.474723.4%11 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc157…728cbacked Yes31c262.52$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.782133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c259.78$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.121,04534.6%362 W · 683 L-93.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes20c244.96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.33511.4%4 W · 31 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-55.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1b11…c4c4backed Yes16c243.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0460%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e1c…87c3backed Yes22c236.73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked No55c230$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes17c221.69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.61915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c219.51$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3435334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes40c215.71$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2939034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes34c205.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2134…0734backed Yes28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick49cpaid-68.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked No53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d56…574abacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes13c184.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.359616.7%16 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No70c179.36$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+69.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No72c177.61$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.133357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No71c177$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.633458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes35c166$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.121228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7940…ba82backed Yes42c163.55$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick51cpaid-77.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No60c158.07$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.633167.7%21 W · 10 L+5.7wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+28.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes10c150.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.77840%0 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No73c147.45$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.564168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes24c145$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.322020%4 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No72c140$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-70.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c135.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3321015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed No44c128.92$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+63.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0036…01c5backed Yes49c122.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601729.4%5 W · 12 L-5.6wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-58.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x411d…9fb0backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b57…37aabacked Yes45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes48c110.48$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.187945.6%36 W · 43 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d4…d6cfbacked Yes9c107.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+68.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e36…d032backed Yes28c100.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301250%6 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+123.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x866d…f673backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69d9…7c64backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.182326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-60.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked No70c93.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.183839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a4…2778backed Yes27c92.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed No65c87.24$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+274.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes50c86.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.412931%9 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No51c84.38$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.04633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e07…dffbbacked Yes24c84.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x729c…2b1ebacked No61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No59c79.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.441656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes27c75.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48a1…2e04backed Yes57c70.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3603…b9b3backed No60c68.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.48366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88fd…c4cfbacked Yes30c66.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed No77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.942240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No54c62.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.958959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.84738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8837…d7a0backed Yes22c57.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.65147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b4…f3c1backed No63c55.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.571758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf620…cd42backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1964…5e04backed No56c50.17$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.172391.3%21 W · 2 L+5.7wins+0.25per pick67cpaid+44.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x27c5…35febacked No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.