TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x97f3…0eba

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
205
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 37.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST5839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Finding Her Edge" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will "Finding Her Edge" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will "Free Bert" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$157.91
Will "His & Hers" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+39.3%+$78.65
Will "His & Hers" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+42.8%+$171.29
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+43.8%+$284.7
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+35.1%+$45.6
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$180
Will "His & Hers" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+99%+$282.06
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+105.1%+$105.06
Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+81.2%+$81.22
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+25.8%+$115.94
Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+25.3%+$114.03
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27,189Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+124.2%+$33,764.21
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$9,294Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$9,293.57
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$7,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+45.9%+$3,210.28
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$1,600
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$650
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will "Murder in Monaco" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Will "The Croods: A New Age" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 23, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$819Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+45.1%+$369.62
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT3647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$128.57
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$146.83
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$88.89
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+1,087.6%+$543.82
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+73%+$1,460.96
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$6,388.8
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$79.66
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$486.7
Claude 4.8 released by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.06
Claude 4.8 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.42
Claude 4.8 released by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$159
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$1,435.1
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$431
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+84%+$1,175.98
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$166.86
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+65.1%+$520.91
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$6,512Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,512.45
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,000
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25,030Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+58.1%+$14,541.4
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43%+$1,980.09
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.4%+$247.11
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$521Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$203.31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$5,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$2,154.19
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$9,767Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+27.3%+$2,665.13
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$9,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+32.8%+$2,948.89
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$1,600
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+26.7%+$133.35
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+55%+$11,051.73
Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+150%+$75
Will Netanyahu say "Iran" 25+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+44.1%+$66.12
Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 50+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+65%+$97.54
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+51.5%+$51.52
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+44.9%+$449.28
Will more than 2.8 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+37.8%+$869.58
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,050Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+66.6%+$1,364.19
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$98.57
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.99
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump say "Crime" 10+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$25.41
Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$56.31
Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Will Trump say "Mexican" or "Mexico" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$29.37
Will Trump mention "South Park" by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 18 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,000
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+113.1%+$565.45
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+90%+$134.95
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+189.7%+$189.71
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-80.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
Commodities — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,500
Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$461.42
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24,152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24,151.8
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17,301Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$17,300.53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,897Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,897.09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$3,834Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,834.2
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,500
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$278.89
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$9,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$3,088.11
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,359Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,358.83
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,400
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$3,000
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$550
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,500
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+56.4%+$56.41
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+27.5%+$55.08
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+37.8%+$37.84
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+25.6%+$51.26
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+116.8%+$116.84
Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$26.82
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$170
All 13 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+124.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+124.8%+$230.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,855Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+124.6%+$3,556.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$950Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$950
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.