TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,950 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab51…2473backed Yes18c6,588$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.86812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No75c3,658$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.121921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes20c3,417$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.9910723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes4c1,874$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.262114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes24c1,743$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.243831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed Yes25c1,741$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.321643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes15c1,624$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.724818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc759…b965backed Yes20c1,608$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.616015%9 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x779d…169fbacked Yes49c1,436$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.31643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes18c1,381$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.551650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes2c1,347$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.31520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-71.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f8…6b50backed Yes23c1,300$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No77c1,229$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.544259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4f…f7e8backed Yes20c1,150$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5732…b57cbacked Yes11c1,097$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes20c1,000$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.292429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked No79c980.34$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.591668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes23c838.04$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c820.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.764157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No77c788$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.242965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13dc…09fdbacked No77c745.73$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes21c719.19$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6519818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc827…6c25backed Yes34c644.74$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c12…748fbacked No71c625.33$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick39cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bf6…50e2backed No72c599.99$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c550.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.513042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x911b…a7febacked Yes23c529.15$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes15c523.33$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.51838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes22c461.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.971,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes23c449.97$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.492339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a3…076ebacked Yes3c437.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No76c435.89$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.021741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No75c425.82$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6825632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x807c…f1e3backed Yes25c399.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1c…852cbacked Yes25c384.6$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes6c369.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.541388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed No72c365.79$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.281752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1491…2997backed No69c361$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes6c355.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7819432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked No54c355.4$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.864242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No58c339$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1717824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes24c337.13$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.159444.7%42 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b7…2ddcbacked Yes18c284.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-69.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x222a…d5afbacked Yes8c280$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-56.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No77c278.12$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.097143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c48…5456backed Yes22c273.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3d…9220backed Yes34c268.11$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes20c254.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3728826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…225ebacked No69c252.99$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+76.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x242c…286dbacked No75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes24c249.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes9c246.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.128150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1d…ca4cbacked No76c245.93$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.83955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa371…5db6backed No64c240.06$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c240$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes31c221.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.824736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes14c221.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5447938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5b…3deabacked Yes10c208.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes18c207$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.922317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6c…998fbacked No77c200$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…0b14backed Yes11c199.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdeb…30d3backed Yes18c198.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No76c197.28$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.281154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b9…433ebacked No64c193.8$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0526…5585backed No61c177.65$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b95…235cbacked No60c177.25$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f8…369bbacked No60c171.58$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa65…9c64backed No67c171.41$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes8c170$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.722977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac77…1566backed No65c169.07$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes9c166.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9322019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked No75c165.5$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes24c165$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.625122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…5d92backed No75c162.73$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.68425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes15c159.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.952937.9%11 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+50.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0154…20a1backed No72c157.03$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes23c149.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3414423.6%34 W · 110 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b57…5c85backed No79c149.37$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89bd…f2ecbacked Yes34c149.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes10c147.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3216418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x07bc…b413backed No78c143.76$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf040…d252backed No72c142.79$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc81…1dbebacked No79c141.77$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7954…aacbbacked No79c138.7$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd920…61a9backed No75c133.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e12…18dcbacked No76c131.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8efe…1e18backed No78c131.54$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf4…fc31backed No78c131.24$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a9…6e3fbacked No77c131.18$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa92b…5734backed No76c130.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed No77c129.67$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.42616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94fa…0c58backed No78c129.11$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0076…490fbacked No78c128.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143e…6bc6backed No78c127.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c126.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1719120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No77c121.46$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.265038%19 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d7…2945backed No77c121.32$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5241…927bbacked No79c115.95$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae10…d8d9backed No77c114.29$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.