AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc45817aeaf5f390a36cca82888dd9a870d2aba7dc648dadbb65d4e005cff1162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 8c | 1,333$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,095$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked Yes | 10c | 903.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 3c | 878.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 579.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 533.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 455.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 441.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 4c | 439.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 304.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 288.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 5c | 238.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…59e7backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…fec3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?this page
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.