AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45fb273305fc50b1ad74285f2bdf9064f905d76bc27f215108fdb4e81a0878e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 11c | 7,602$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.85 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 8c | 7,592$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.78 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 10c | 3,504$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.75 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 8c | 2,369$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 7c | 1,612$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…4b5ebacked No | 14c | 719.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 707.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…2f1ebacked No | 16c | 608.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…f37ebacked No | 17c | 601.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…0be1backed No | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…998fbacked No | 6c | 599.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde3d…81dfbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 17c | 499.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…ea43backed No | 14c | 435.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 380.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…a03bbacked No | 4c | 377.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 7c | 361.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 356.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4845…580cbacked No | 3c | 337.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…5d92backed No | 23c | 293.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 7c | 286.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3658…5c34backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 7c | 213.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d42…0534backed No | 5c | 207$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 15c | 203.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 27c | 190$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 164.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 13c | 148.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…2120backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 114$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed Yes | 68c | 101$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…b0d7backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ff…ea2abacked No | 12c | 80.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…44e1backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd92…3482backed No | 25c | 57.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…f6d1backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 23c | 47.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed Yes | 76c | 27.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…003dbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?this page
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.