Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c8f39125f0118e813253329316e9d22edc8d5480d3109801cc2bd4968652d49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 10c | 24,170$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.32 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 25c | 2,463$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.61 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 70c | 2,022$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 23c | 2,003$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.53 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…9e86backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…e65abacked No | 79c | 1,261$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,175$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 29c | 1,105$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 23c | 1,101$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 4c | 980.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…7693backed Yes | 16c | 949.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 14c | 800$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 705.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked No | 71c | 704.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…35e5backed No | 72c | 699.99$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed No | 77c | 699.57$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…ca04backed Yes | 37c | 673.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 25c | 617.82$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 609.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed No | 76c | 561.57$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 75c | 500$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 69c | 447.92$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 70c | 442.86$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 24c | 441.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 413.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1215backed Yes | 26c | 388.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 73c | 372$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 26c | 364.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 79c | 363.14$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 72c | 317.54$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed Yes | 7c | 300.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…fa42backed No | 72c | 277.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 25c | 250.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232d…d2f7backed No | 71c | 237.63$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…162fbacked No | 58c | 235.3$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…166fbacked Yes | 30c | 234.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 18c | 209.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 187.89$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 27c | 169.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…2f2abacked No | 68c | 161.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…fff6backed Yes | 32c | 157.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…355ebacked Yes | 24c | 153.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 73c | 145.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…ad91backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd8…e076backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…01d1backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 73c | 137.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed No | 76c | 136$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7122…4e23backed No | 70c | 135.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…796ebacked No | 77c | 133.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d87…ca5abacked Yes | 38c | 132.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 31c | 130.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed No | 79c | 126.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 74c | 121.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…e902backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 27c | 102.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…bbc9backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2154…715cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked No | 74c | 97.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 65c | 94.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 32c | 92.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e54…0dc0backed No | 73c | 89.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 86.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…e9c9backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 66c | 79.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…170ebacked No | 74c | 75.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 24c | 70.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528b…b521backed No | 72c | 69.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…d3adbacked No | 69c | 63.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe540…f9dfbacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…b2a1backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebf…47cfbacked No | 71c | 56.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed No | 75c | 55.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3e…4c3cbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…2a9dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7155backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…c4f2backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…2a47backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.