Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5aa8e5794736b2a6dd9d71bee166d89a772cc7f0aa295d1cf583ab8084da8c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $549,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $691,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3dd…8829backed No | 0c | 50,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed No | 1c | 47,773$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 65c | 23,426$15,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,129.24 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…50cbbacked No | 3c | 19,888$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 2c | 11,049$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…c40fbacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 18c | 9,493$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,742.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed No | 51c | 9,426$4,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,821.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 22c | 9,398$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 9c | 9,031$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26de…a945backed No | 42c | 7,613$3,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,173.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 1c | 7,462$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 12c | 4,645$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 1c | 4,622$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -91%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…d3adbacked No | 38c | 4,247$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 3,950$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.01 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 13c | 3,650$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 69c | 3,453$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.06 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 38c | 3,420$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,559$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.97 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 59c | 2,448$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf3…6904backed No | 1c | 2,103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 71c | 1,971$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.35 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 65c | 1,922$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 5c | 1,903$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 38c | 1,818$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.36 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 40c | 1,773$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,771$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.38 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…8086backed No | 42c | 1,755$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 53c | 1,534$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.88 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 58c | 1,304$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 72c | 1,302$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 61c | 1,291$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.68 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed No | 43c | 1,247$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…4a6fbacked No | 55c | 1,163$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 76c | 1,096$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 46c | 1,075$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.76 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…ca04backed Yes | 66c | 1,055$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 35c | 1,022$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed No | 9c | 1,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 61c | 982.56$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.56 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…2dd0backed No | 7c | 877$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 12c | 827.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…4bcebacked No | 8c | 798.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…0e6dbacked No | 9c | 794.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 62c | 773.49$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 53c | 761.95$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.64 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 54c | 638.03$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 18c | 632.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 72c | 620.71$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.48 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 53c | 603.68$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 10c | 543.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 55c | 540$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.2 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 3c | 531.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…d73ebacked No | 32c | 527.6$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…587bbacked No | 6c | 508.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…162fbacked No | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed No | 45c | 490.99$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…aa76backed Yes | 17c | 471.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed No | 35c | 470$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 21c | 463.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…6a01backed Yes | 46c | 462.62$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +508.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 14c | 426.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…d861backed Yes | 65c | 420$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…eb08backed No | 60c | 416.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…ad91backed No | 51c | 412.88$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…be6fbacked No | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…2f2abacked No | 14c | 369.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…ffccbacked No | 55c | 360.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed No | 50c | 360$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…36c8backed No | 80c | 354.89$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 349.83$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 38c | 338.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 62c | 337$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 61c | 327.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…8d47backed No | 48c | 309.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 21c | 308.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b2…a3afbacked Yes | 65c | 306.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 30c | 304.79$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.98 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…61c9backed No | 7c | 285.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…f279backed No | 49c | 280.61$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…a95dbacked No | 17c | 271.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 50c | 262.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.07 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 50c | 262.05$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x447a…8227backed No | 6c | 260.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…e997backed No | 8c | 258.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked No | 58c | 256.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 34c | 256.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 58c | 250$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 245.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.65 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 244.09$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…fa42backed No | 41c | 242.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked Yes | 63c | 236.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 16c | 233.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed No | 9c | 231.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 79c | 222$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 27c | 220$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.