Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf92319263279f30a23524a0825b9c026bcfb2195aef2ee393685abdbd9415ddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 4c | 18,067$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.85 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753f…b52bbacked No | 4c | 11,591$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 4c | 6,928$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 4c | 5,508$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.9 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 3c | 4,670$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed No | 7c | 4,445$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…7693backed No | 3c | 3,573$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…2a59backed No | 3c | 1,728$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 6c | 1,655$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 1,492$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed No | 3c | 1,475$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked No | 4c | 1,224$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 4c | 1,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed No | 4c | 1,111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x447a…8227backed No | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked No | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 3c | 917.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed No | 3c | 844$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…4d16backed No | 4c | 779.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e9…7415backed No | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked No | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 5c | 652.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…0966backed No | 3c | 577.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…ec7dbacked No | 3c | 405.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 361.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f56…9302backed No | 5c | 350$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 347.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…4276backed No | 6c | 333.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…8b3abacked No | 3c | 296.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.