TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$420,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$371,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,000 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9178…a2b2backed No2c35,394$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.956616.7%11 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f27…7acabacked No5c31,228$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb952…0850backed No3c28,793$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed No3c25,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No2c17,216$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.419026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No3c16,741$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.86128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-89.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e43…0f92backed No2c12,950$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1e…65a5backed No4c12,069$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x753f…b52bbacked No4c11,704$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2c…86bfbacked No5c10,761$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0a…8340backed No1c7,799$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.99616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a6…9574backed No7c6,940$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x290b…35a1backed No4c6,740$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be9…067abacked No5c6,378$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked No4c5,387$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe964…f5a9backed No2c5,175$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c5,174$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.683187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c4,879$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.64960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ee…67b5backed No3c3,719$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked No4c3,551$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1092…4e2fbacked No3c3,454$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed6…6a8dbacked No2c3,272$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+87.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No2c3,190$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.24365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-81.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdacf…8d11backed No5c2,971$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe576…eeffbacked No2c2,622$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd99a…02afbacked No3c2,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x947d…64b8backed No4c2,232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x489f…ce2ebacked No4c2,091$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed No2c2,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-77.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ab…7e31backed No2c1,955$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.39616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No1c1,944$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2712941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked No2c1,879$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb720…66a3backed No4c1,797$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa805…3c92backed No6c1,794$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No2c1,756$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.436025%15 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5548…2a59backed No9c1,594$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c4…812fbacked No2c1,583$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked No3c1,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.41118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-15.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbe2b…9b60backed No3c1,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-80.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae3c…2808backed No2c1,400$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb15d…3e46backed No1c1,376$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1672…dd42backed No2c1,285$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1849…aca9backed No3c1,205$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+123.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed No3c1,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.480%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf692…c683backed No3c1,179$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9a…c3f4backed No4c1,166$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82c6…f1f9backed No4c1,157$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x330d…1639backed No2c1,116$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…7e1cbacked No5c1,107$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8714…0966backed No3c1,100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes6c1,071$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.022157.1%12 W · 9 L+9.2wins+0.44per pick14cpaid+420%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xb45b…8243backed No3c1,020$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b1…48eebacked No4c1,016$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.65119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa285…98e8backed No3c1,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed No4c1,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed No4c977.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed No5c880$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-60.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…deb3backed No4c832.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe46c…05f2backed No6c787.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-89.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked No2c722$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0f…16d4backed No3c713.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f3…ece6backed No4c698.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b0…000dbacked No5c690.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.16850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+62.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb179…6b13backed No3c669.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabdf…8cd0backed No4c669.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f34…6f89backed No2c663.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9f…0980backed No2c631.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked No4c626.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d1…8c91backed No3c620.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.451526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41d7…22eabacked No5c607.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd30a…25e9backed No3c606.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea94…79b8backed No4c600.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed No3c600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d50…1baebacked No2c560.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2486…67debacked No4c540.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe534…53d0backed No2c523.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd59…1a9abacked No5c521.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb3c…2a75backed No4c515.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe14f…c1a0backed No2c499.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec52…59e8backed No3c499.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x284e…c695backed No4c495.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d88…ba3dbacked No4c481.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-87.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0371…4f7cbacked No3c480.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeccd…54d9backed No4c476.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c8…8618backed No4c462.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02e8…f8c5backed No4c455.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No2c432.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.393545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b04…415bbacked No5c425.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89cd…5b6bbacked No3c423.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a49…293cbacked No3c419.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfe…4341backed No4c405.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6695…efb3backed No3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfc21…9eb9backed No3c380.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x621e…38debacked No4c350$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x551b…b6afbacked No4c341.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15290%0 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cdd…f594backed No4c324.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xded4…9deebacked No5c320$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60c8…3c9cbacked No4c315.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1cc…de45backed No4c298.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2143…1382backed No5c265.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.