Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa3056ca3596e49e5ba5724814968ef6500a0f3756c1f8174e96bb5c1229aeb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $420,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $371,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 2c | 35,394$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.95 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f27…7acabacked No | 5c | 31,228$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb952…0850backed No | 3c | 28,793$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 3c | 25,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 17,216$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.4 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No | 3c | 16,741$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.86 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 2c | 12,950$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…65a5backed No | 4c | 12,069$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753f…b52bbacked No | 4c | 11,704$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…86bfbacked No | 5c | 10,761$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed No | 1c | 7,799$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9574backed No | 7c | 6,940$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290b…35a1backed No | 4c | 6,740$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be9…067abacked No | 5c | 6,378$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked No | 4c | 5,387$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed No | 2c | 5,175$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 5,174$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 4,879$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…67b5backed No | 3c | 3,719$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 4c | 3,551$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…4e2fbacked No | 3c | 3,454$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked No | 2c | 3,272$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 3,190$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 5c | 2,971$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe576…eeffbacked No | 2c | 2,622$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…02afbacked No | 3c | 2,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…64b8backed No | 4c | 2,232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489f…ce2ebacked No | 4c | 2,091$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed No | 2c | 1,955$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 1c | 1,944$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked No | 2c | 1,879$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…66a3backed No | 4c | 1,797$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…3c92backed No | 6c | 1,794$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 2c | 1,756$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…2a59backed No | 9c | 1,594$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked No | 2c | 1,583$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 3c | 1,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2b…9b60backed No | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…2808backed No | 2c | 1,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…3e46backed No | 1c | 1,376$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…dd42backed No | 2c | 1,285$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…aca9backed No | 3c | 1,205$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed No | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…c683backed No | 3c | 1,179$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…c3f4backed No | 4c | 1,166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…f1f9backed No | 4c | 1,157$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…1639backed No | 2c | 1,116$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked No | 5c | 1,107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…0966backed No | 3c | 1,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,071$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb45b…8243backed No | 3c | 1,020$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked No | 4c | 1,016$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…98e8backed No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed No | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed No | 4c | 977.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 5c | 880$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…deb3backed No | 4c | 832.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…05f2backed No | 6c | 787.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked No | 2c | 722$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…16d4backed No | 3c | 713.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…ece6backed No | 4c | 698.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…000dbacked No | 5c | 690.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb179…6b13backed No | 3c | 669.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…8cd0backed No | 4c | 669.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…6f89backed No | 2c | 663.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…0980backed No | 2c | 631.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked No | 4c | 626.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…8c91backed No | 3c | 620.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…22eabacked No | 5c | 607.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…25e9backed No | 3c | 606.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea94…79b8backed No | 4c | 600.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked No | 2c | 560.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2486…67debacked No | 4c | 540.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…53d0backed No | 2c | 523.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…1a9abacked No | 5c | 521.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3c…2a75backed No | 4c | 515.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 2c | 499.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed No | 3c | 499.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…c695backed No | 4c | 495.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…ba3dbacked No | 4c | 481.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…4f7cbacked No | 3c | 480.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…54d9backed No | 4c | 476.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…8618backed No | 4c | 462.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e8…f8c5backed No | 4c | 455.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 2c | 432.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…415bbacked No | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…5b6bbacked No | 3c | 423.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…293cbacked No | 3c | 419.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfe…4341backed No | 4c | 405.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…efb3backed No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed No | 3c | 380.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…38debacked No | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b6afbacked No | 4c | 341.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…f594backed No | 4c | 324.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…9deebacked No | 5c | 320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c8…3c9cbacked No | 4c | 315.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cc…de45backed No | 4c | 298.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2143…1382backed No | 5c | 265.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.