Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2873339d8ded98df3742e0f116a571e7952126d74792b75c2ae63c3ed29e383f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b3e…c621backed Yes | 66c | 760.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 31c | 593.38$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.18 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…b32abacked Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 35c | 408.97$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.83 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 404.18$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.56 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 63c | 393.62$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 30c | 349.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 51c | 334.02$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 43c | 295.33$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed No | 51c | 293.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…f490backed Yes | 74c | 270.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked Yes | 59c | 215.64$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 43c | 162$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 54c | 133.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 69c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 35c | 107.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 62c | 101.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 62c | 99.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…269abacked Yes | 63c | 94.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Yes | 61c | 82.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…a3edbacked Yes | 67c | 80.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 76.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 21c | 75.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…25e9backed Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…75c9backed Yes | 53c | 56.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x447a…8227backed No | 37c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked No | 32c | 55.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea0…318fbacked No | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…f6d9backed No | 37c | 52.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22b…be5ebacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 37c | 49.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…a0e4backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cd0abacked Yes | 72c | 47.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 36c | 41.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 69c | 40.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…ab11backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed No | 64c | 31.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…80e4backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad0…d5bfbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb472…9436backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 40c | 25.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 64c | 23.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 46c | 22.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…c8dfbacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…041bbacked Yes | 69c | 16.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.