Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702a386c91d7d046ffabefa7f0386ebba8579e925cee78558a2475720e40ab74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 35c | 1,494$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 60c | 555$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 306.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 23c | 282.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 214.79$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 187.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…8618backed No | 79c | 126.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked No | 62c | 123$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 117.35$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…162fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 25c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed No | 75c | 66.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9ca1backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22b…be5ebacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x447a…8227backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…31f1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.