Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe42f641143e0b22a1e19eb831c6ecd6b8b045ef26dbc532a75fac2a167591946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 42c | 1,991$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…4d15backed Yes | 45c | 1,326$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 60c | 1,020$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 967.2$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.88 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 62c | 818.23$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.54 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 31c | 799.98$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.99 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 40c | 757.12$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.65 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…c621backed No | 73c | 686.41$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 34c | 640$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.19 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…166fbacked Yes | 46c | 612.64$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e9…7415backed Yes | 42c | 599.95$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 40c | 585.48$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.48 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…647bbacked No | 59c | 583.26$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 55c | 578.75$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.44 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 40c | 575.43$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.07 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 557.14$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.14 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 55c | 514.55$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…b32abacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 33c | 487.96$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed No | 64c | 481.78$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 37c | 480.31$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.51 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 36c | 454.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.7 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b5…16b0backed No | 67c | 451.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 39c | 416.45$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.65 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 63c | 374.69$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…bdf7backed Yes | 33c | 362.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…f490backed No | 62c | 358.85$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 330.81$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.16 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 75c | 315.22$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked No | 67c | 300.76$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 65c | 254.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 250.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…1235backed No | 58c | 249.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 43c | 231.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 40c | 220$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 28c | 213.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…ca04backed Yes | 47c | 210.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…162fbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 45c | 163.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…7fc0backed Yes | 46c | 163.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 58c | 149.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…f21ebacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…e9c9backed No | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 59c | 124.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 31c | 124.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 55c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…31f1backed No | 55c | 115.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 31c | 112.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…e902backed Yes | 53c | 94.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 44c | 85.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 40c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 70c | 82.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…ede8backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…05f2backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…6721backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 75.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…6113backed No | 67c | 75.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…3561backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…4280backed Yes | 45c | 69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8697backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 42c | 59.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…be6fbacked Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…e2b1backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2649…9d3cbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22b…be5ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 69c | 49.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d87…ca5abacked Yes | 53c | 46.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 27c | 46.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…7f4cbacked No | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…b2a1backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 42c | 41.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…ab11backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 74c | 38.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Anchored" 3+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.