TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1cc2…5003

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
141
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST2755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+108.3%+$104
Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+522.9%+$372.88
Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$111.61
Will Trump say "Rwanda" or "Congo" 12+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+138.1%+$52
Will Trump say "Eight wars" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$96
Will Trump say "Machete" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$21.15
Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$142.4
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+170.3%+$63
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+47.1%+$48
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+35.1%+$76.24
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$68.4
Will Donald Trump say "Handsome / Attractive" during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+55.4%+$110.79
Will Donald Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 12+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+94.1%+$48.92
Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine / Russia" 5+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$85.5
Will Donald Trump say "Crown" during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+66.7%+$40
Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.2
Will Trump say "Erdogan" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$20.65
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$93.91
Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+54.3%+$42.62
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$41
Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.91
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$18
Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+78.4%+$239.5
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST2050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump say "ICE" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+194.1%+$132
Will Trump say "Affordability" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+132.6%+$75.81
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+138.1%+$61.2
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+150%+$60
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$59.29
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$57
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.99
Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$36
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+25%+$100
Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during announcement today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+305.4%+$90.4
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during ballroom dinner on October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.5
Will Trump say "Tariff" during ballroom dinner on October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+65.2%+$39.55
Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.1
Will Trump say Bibi during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$299.4
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.72
Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$576.52
Will Warsh say "Uncertainty" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.21
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+88.7%+$47
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+92.3%+$47.99
Will Powell say "Projection" 5+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+138.1%+$58
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$22
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.79
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.5
Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$34
Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$36.87
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.55
Will anyone say "Inflation" during the FED board meeting on October 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.68
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$890Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$889.89
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 5.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,199.99
Colombia vs. Ghana: Colombia O/U 5.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$920Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$1,079.99
Portugal vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,039.97
Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 5.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Spain vs. Austria: Spain O/U 6.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,099.97
Belgium vs. Senegal: Belgium O/U 4.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$1,239.99
England vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.56
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 4.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$920
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$592Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$592.27
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 5.5 Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$559.99
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.25
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.88
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+670.4%+$435.1
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.44
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$129.77
All 18 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$564.11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$665.7
Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$59
Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+84.2%+$91.99
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+127.6%+$41.48
Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+124.1%+$111.71
Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$77.68
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$479.42
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,999.2
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+140.4%+$210.53
Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+203%+$82.89
Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.5
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+91.3%+$158.36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,015Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$356.69
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$333.59
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+89.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+400%+$400
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+400%+$399.99
Will Keir Starmer say "Labour" 8+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+78.6%+$66
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$130.56
Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questionsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$16.68
Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+233.3%+$70
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$135.94
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$20
Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+109.2%+$21.84
All 10 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+85.6%+$93.93
Will Trump say "Biden" during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+63.9%+$24.05
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$474.94
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+112.8%+$106
Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$886Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$885.8
Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$791.64
Will Donald Trump say "Cilia" or "Flores" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$176
All 7 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Sep 30, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Girona win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+85.8%+$1,846.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Sep 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.