Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf53121b46c9f35ebae9a837f56963ebc0ecd5ad7895e4a67074f4063af78bf8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 48c | 588.8$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.11 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 63c | 538$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +94%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 55c | 410$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed Yes | 51c | 383$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 63c | 374$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 55c | 315.61$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 37c | 274$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 37c | 264$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed Yes | 56c | 248.11$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 41c | 244.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 45c | 231$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 62c | 221.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 45c | 197.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.71 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 42c | 194.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.37 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 58c | 173.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 171.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 63c | 167$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 38c | 166.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 64c | 162.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…2f49backed Yes | 60c | 157.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 140.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 45c | 138.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe7…068abacked Yes | 58c | 132.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 51c | 130.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…045cbacked Yes | 54c | 119.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…ce2cbacked No | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 59c | 102.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 59c | 100.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…178bbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1761…5ec5backed No | 40c | 98.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…4927backed No | 42c | 89.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Yes | 59c | 86.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f9…69c9backed Yes | 60c | 84.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 79.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed No | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 40c | 74.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 54c | 73.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes | 55c | 72.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 68.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed No | 79c | 65.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…2b55backed Yes | 42c | 52.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Yes | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked No | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8394…57ddbacked Yes | 58c | 51.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…f499backed Yes | 37c | 50.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…e022backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 34c | 46.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked No | 50c | 45.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes | 58c | 44.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 56c | 44.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…a88dbacked Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…0af4backed No | 74c | 40.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…86f5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…7c9abacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca7…0561backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Yes | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0a…2a7cbacked No | 43c | 38.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe19f…6c6cbacked No | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…2a2cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…9116backed Yes | 57c | 33.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 61c | 32.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 46c | 31.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…c808backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87a…65a1backed Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431d…98aabacked No | 72c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…2d86backed No | 44c | 27.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 74c | 27.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed No | 47c | 25.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…f700backed Yes | 52c | 25.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…48a6backed Yes | 57c | 24.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 62c | 24.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked No | 46c | 22.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…81a4backed No | 47c | 22.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…cc7fbacked Yes | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.