Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc07aead761a45bcd987340bb58858e89cdcdca8361b1387690423bd873dcb234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 60c | 409$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 43c | 362$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed No | 61c | 346.87$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 293.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 53c | 279.97$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.89 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0a…b4b9backed Yes | 54c | 258.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 39c | 250$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 64c | 230$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 34c | 221.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 10c | 196.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 188.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 70c | 181.8$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c4…86e2backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 64c | 137.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 47c | 106.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe19f…6c6cbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…6974backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 61c | 76.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…86f0backed Yes | 34c | 75.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed No | 66c | 75.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 36c | 71.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…2469backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed No | 67c | 52.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…e022backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…530abacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…a88dbacked Yes | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked No | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked No | 65c | 31.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 63c | 30.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 43c | 30.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…9a89backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…b433backed Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No | 59c | 27.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 68c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 75c | 19.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 57c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 75c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabaa…f18ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87a…65a1backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.