Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd275579a551279b39d7ea320ddd8b224006c02ca38595ad401e0546c941c2dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 78c | 1,882$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 23c | 999.97$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f1d9backed Yes | 31c | 729$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb955…b181backed Yes | 24c | 607$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 77c | 555$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 548.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 69c | 454$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked No | 69c | 381$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…e9d4backed No | 75c | 315.19$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 74c | 249.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 249.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 78c | 212$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6174…fbcabacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…fd8dbacked Yes | 19c | 190$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 71c | 165.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 22c | 162.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 22c | 159.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 78c | 154.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 31c | 153$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ca…f698backed Yes | 17c | 134$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 25c | 132.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 117.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…bffcbacked Yes | 21c | 110.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…e022backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…86f0backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…9a89backed Yes | 23c | 84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 15c | 80.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c65…d60dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Yes | 25c | 79.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 75c | 66.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb09f…545cbacked Yes | 30c | 65.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes | 20c | 62.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 79c | 54.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…696fbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…61c1backed No | 79c | 48.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked No | 77c | 44.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…93b1backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…2d82backed Yes | 32c | 39.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 76c | 36.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 67c | 27.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 79c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 23.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21a…fabcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b4…08a1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed No | 77c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 78c | 18.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d6fbbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.