Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb7c2b6bbda275dc140bb1ed07e6c8b27e924689453f0dc1f261425487990b5b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $16,572
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,342

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,572 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes	78c	3,103$2,429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$673.77	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+4.2wins	+0.32per pick	44cpaid	+63.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1710…3344backed Yes	23c	984.28$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$752.99	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	33cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No	9c	833$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.97	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No	7c	571$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.97	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No	7c	571$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.97	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x254a…eef8backed No	78c	420.49$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked Yes	24c	420$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.2	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	76c	400$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb796…58a8backed Yes	41c	364.63$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.66	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Yes	56c	356.52$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.52	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	22c	262.36$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.76	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d6c…3407backed Yes	41c	244.38$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.38	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	76c	225.14$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.06	142	39.4%56 W · 86 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No	75c	211.71$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.88	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No	76c	200$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No	78c	200$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.26	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes	23c	195.75$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.18	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	59c	167.81$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.48	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No	47c	166.82$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.68	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes	33c	142.86$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.72	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed No	76c	134.98$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.59	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	27c	110.9$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.99	417	36.2%151 W · 266 L	-25.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	37c	110.14$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.53	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	10cpaid	+284.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked No	76c	100$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	59cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7362…2469backed Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.33	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-38%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58d5…045cbacked Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.33	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No	75c	83.33$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	40c	82.16$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.71	294	16%47 W · 247 L	-53.7wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes	26c	73.82$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.63	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+60.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No	73c	68.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes	23c	63.95$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.06	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	21c	60$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.4	394	29.4%116 W · 278 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b97…0efebacked No	58c	57.38$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	49c	52$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.34	214	26.2%56 W · 158 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba74…e022backed No	78c	50$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x569f…5561backed Yes	24c	49$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.24	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	34c	42.52$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.06	263	18.3%48 W · 215 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No	57c	42$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes	39c	39.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.2	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	72c	30.41$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	66	75.8%50 W · 16 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	68cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No	68c	29.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-10%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes	53c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.87	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event