Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a066403d97fbabae97156abc95da27897740ae5cc4283ee2d37d12f1e8789f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 59c | 1,758$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.32 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…fb54backed Yes | 43c | 1,377$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 42c | 680.83$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.25 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes | 70c | 558$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 68c | 532.51$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.09 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed No | 60c | 409.04$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.97 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 58c | 376.05$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.37 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 30c | 372$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 58c | 349.43$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.76 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 286.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 58c | 273.81$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 271$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 39c | 250.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes | 28c | 245.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c4…86e2backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 43c | 234.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 30c | 213$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 41c | 211.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…fad8backed Yes | 49c | 205.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…4f34backed Yes | 42c | 204.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 40c | 202.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 45c | 201.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 58c | 198.18$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 55c | 175.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 15c | 166.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 39c | 160.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 42c | 154.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 77c | 153.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 60c | 149.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 39c | 149.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…36fdbacked Yes | 40c | 148.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 147.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 53c | 147.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 30c | 133$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked No | 46c | 111.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…9c3bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 58c | 98.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 73.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 67.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe7…068abacked Yes | 40c | 50.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…48a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 43c | 46.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…2469backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 76c | 43.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 66c | 42.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked No | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…3d9abacked Yes | 37c | 41.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 61c | 40.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44e…edf6backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…2d82backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2df…ad16backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3923…7939backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c60…0665backed Yes | 39c | 34.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…a3a8backed Yes | 33c | 33.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 57cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…c808backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de6…3135backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…be20backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…e072backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…4085backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21a…fabcbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 61c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 73c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.