TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,250 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb100…6461backed No59c1,758$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.325949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b6…fb54backed Yes43c1,377$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes42c680.83$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.259518.9%18 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes70c558$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No68c532.51$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.098247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed No60c409.04$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.976100%6 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+90.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No58c376.05$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.377761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No30c372$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No58c349.43$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.761811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes29c286.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.778725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No58c273.81$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11510651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes11c271$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4126835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes39c250.78$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.192615.4%4 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes28c245.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7090%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c4…86e2backed Yes42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes43c234.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No30c213$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Yes41c211.09$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d30…fad8backed Yes49c205.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5258…4f34backed Yes42c204.21$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No40c202.73$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.641560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No45c201.71$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.711752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No58c198.18$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed No55c180$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x0b97…0efebacked No55c175.98$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.99742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes15c166.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.76864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes39c160.77$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.646640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes70c160$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes42c154.84$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+60.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed No77c153.45$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.851838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked Yes60c149.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.291618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-72.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes39c149.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8714239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37d8…36fdbacked Yes40c148.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.26728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c147.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9626318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes53c147.46$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.827733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No30c133$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1c…c03abacked No46c111.11$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4211741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4932…9c3bbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc75…a292backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes55c99.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No58c98.18$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.241030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-50.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No41c95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.851266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+48.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed No43c95$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.151546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325318.9%10 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes52c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.923321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes20c73.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7229416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes37c67.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.14346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No63c62$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed No63c55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe7…068abacked Yes40c50.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a0b…48a6backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes43c46.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+187.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7362…2469backed Yes44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2947…4cf4backed No76c43.84$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No66c42.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.526675.8%50 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f10…cbbdbacked No61c42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.381758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb900…3d9abacked Yes37c41.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No61c40.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.083438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe44e…edf6backed Yes59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.63315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0eb…2d82backed Yes70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.11145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23721.6%8 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2df…ad16backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3923…7939backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c60…0665backed Yes39c34.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x331d…a3a8backed Yes33c33.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick57cpaid+56.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed No61c32.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.882365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f64…9138backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.639429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713a…c808backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373c…afbcbacked No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.751346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-80.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de6…3135backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf673…be20backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes61c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.644759.6%28 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14ca…e072backed Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…4085backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x190a…4ab4backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa21a…fabcbacked No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No61c16.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.53663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No73c16.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.37977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.