Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6344fb580313e25b272350c3abfd9feb55bfd152c188150f9fbe6c7017f8c0f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x055e…f94fbacked No | 23c | 1,112$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 965.51$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.63 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 22c | 809.09$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 30c | 705.21$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 70c | 684.48$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 29c | 676.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 27c | 586.12$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 19c | 547.07$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked Yes | 68c | 455$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 444.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 40c | 434.23$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes | 67c | 365.85$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 28c | 357.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b70…8e25backed No | 28c | 357.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…a86abacked Yes | 79c | 345.45$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 341.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 26c | 335.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…657dbacked No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Yes | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 35c | 284.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed Yes | 72c | 278.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…a628backed No | 33c | 254.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 23c | 221.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…f3b8backed Yes | 72c | 216.07$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 18c | 205.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 71c | 199.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…6d7ebacked Yes | 72c | 191.2$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 26c | 173.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 69c | 172.03$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 33c | 171.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked No | 45c | 170.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…a0c6backed No | 30c | 168.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 29c | 161.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked No | 32c | 156.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad5…1d61backed Yes | 65c | 153.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed No | 27c | 148.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 66c | 148$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 147.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 69c | 145.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 72c | 140.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…839abacked No | 19c | 137.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…e499backed Yes | 73c | 136.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 37c | 133.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 124.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 20c | 122.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7952backed No | 29c | 121.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…a776backed No | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f4…0d0dbacked No | 27c | 109.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 30c | 101.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…e5c0backed No | 25c | 100.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b28…aa68backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed No | 27c | 96.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked No | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked No | 29c | 86.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 84.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…9c3bbacked No | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 75c | 81.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55f…5705backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 66c | 78.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3208backed Yes | 77c | 76.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked No | 34c | 74.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 64c | 73.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed No | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Yes | 70c | 69.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…0179backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 75c | 66.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…de79backed No | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 77c | 65.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…530abacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 71c | 63.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…9e2bbacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…fa4fbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed No | 23c | 57.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e0…754ebacked No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 31c | 54.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…2a2cbacked Yes | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 25c | 54.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 25c | 52.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.