Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e59f1be305e3e2dc1e27c60ffc0a7484b75cc78a7cb5f25b6e7d85b74cec3a5

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,412 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb100…6461backed Yes	22c	1,038$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.82	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc90…00aebacked No	77c	520$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.37	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d69…0354backed Yes	26c	400$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed No	74c	400$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	20c	363.14$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.51	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No	67c	250$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.5	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x248d…e9d4backed No	78c	243.23$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.15	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	78c	222.87$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.87	142	39.4%56 W · 86 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7362…2469backed Yes	20c	198.21$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-38%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No	75c	169.93$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.31	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	79c	145.35$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.52	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4229…c131backed Yes	37c	145.05$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.17	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed No	77c	130$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.9	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7094…530abacked Yes	33c	120.3$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No	76c	100.01$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.29	95	18.9%18 W · 77 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes	20c	99.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked Yes	23c	88.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed No	78c	88.65$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.15	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-3.9wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	15c	87.34$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	294	16%47 W · 247 L	-53.7wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes	27c	83.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.65	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	70c	73.65$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.74	214	26.2%56 W · 158 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3889…1c56backed Yes	30c	47.15$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No	63c	46.04$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.03	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-4.1wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	78c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	417	36.2%151 W · 266 L	-25.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6e4…b433backed Yes	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	37c	39.04$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	263	18.3%48 W · 215 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f10…cbbdbacked No	69c	38$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.78	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb09f…545cbacked Yes	42c	35.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes	42c	30.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee1…3ceabacked No	68c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	66cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c6…1f12backed No	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No	64c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.55	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No	78c	24$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.28	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x190a…4ab4backed No	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4c…3d14backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked No	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+113.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event