Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3b73f92bdca9479b9822cc5004bd1023e8963b1e355a92aa2d0dc71fe2bbaa

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $16,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,584 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a0e…9036backed Yes	53c	1,939$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No	55c	1,459$805 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$653.77	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+5.0wins	+0.20per pick	44cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No	67c	746.49$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.2	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	+6.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No	67c	644.08$429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.78	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26b2…4486backed No	72c	485.97$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.97	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed No	60c	371.22$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.03	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+60.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked Yes	38c	340$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.2	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	30c	327.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No	67c	305.87$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.55	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed No	67c	299.99$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	36c	273.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	37c	268.89$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.67	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x488d…0e64backed No	70c	266.59$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.47	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+43.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes	37c	250$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.5	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d6c…3407backed Yes	45c	223.43$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	29c	190.43$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.4	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x429a…d58cbacked No	66c	172$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.17	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.36per pick	61cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	27c	169.91$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.45	294	16%47 W · 247 L	-53.7wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No	63c	155.15$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.43	95	18.9%18 W · 77 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed No	72c	139.98$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.19	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked No	60c	137$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.04	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	44cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2359…f5febacked Yes	44c	110$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+130.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	63c	99.99$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	61c	99.98$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.99	214	26.2%56 W · 158 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	58c	99.52$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.53	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.9wins	+0.16per pick	40cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No	78c	99.5$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.49	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	56cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes	44c	91.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-57%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes	33c	89.32$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.39	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed No	53c	88.1$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7ce0…e809backed Yes	28c	85.71$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+32.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4932…9c3bbacked No	63c	79.37$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.37	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8d…6d9cbacked No	74c	76.77$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.06	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	48cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ed…4927backed Yes	37c	75.68$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f5e…a628backed No	67c	74.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-43%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	23c	71.72$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.22	263	18.3%48 W · 215 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x211f…da14backed Yes	49c	67.49$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.22	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked No	60c	65.48$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c94…2c0dbacked No	77c	62.55$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa406…bd18backed No	62c	60.48$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.98	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ef…c6b5backed No	66c	60$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0eb…2d82backed Yes	42c	59.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.06	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.15per pick	60cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	64c	58.82$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.97	142	39.4%56 W · 86 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45eb…dcb7backed Yes	35c	56.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b6d…8727backed Yes	35c	56.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed No	61c	54.29$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.17	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.7wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+90.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	22c	52.35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.49	86	4.7%4 W · 82 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-87%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes	35c	52.25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7094…530abacked Yes	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97a…cfe6backed Yes	50c	50.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.26	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.83	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No	64c	50$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed No	32c	50$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No	63c	47.77$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.78	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x454c…c323backed Yes	39c	47.27$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb56d…0d39backed Yes	47c	42.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb7…411cbacked No	71c	42.38$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.09	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+50%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes	34c	41.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x687e…de8bbacked Yes	37c	40.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.21per pick	34cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4384…175fbacked Yes	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc4…2ed3backed Yes	29c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	38c	40$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.27per pick	36cpaid	-82.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3923…7939backed Yes	30c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	56c	39.57$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.41	394	29.4%116 W · 278 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f10…cbbdbacked No	71c	36$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.44	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf936…0b6fbacked No	64c	35.15$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.65	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7463…59b3backed No	59c	33.65$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	42cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked No	64c	31.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	39cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed Yes	37c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x569f…5561backed Yes	37c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed No	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+61.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x757b…a0e2backed No	55c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+67.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x373c…afbcbacked No	72c	21.99$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.16	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No	66c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x190a…4ab4backed No	72c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b2…b7febacked No	64c	19.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.25	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	68c	19.22$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.16	66	75.8%50 W · 16 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	68cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa11d…1d0dbacked No	66c	17.08$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.73	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event