Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf11482b4f1e7707d886852550e977d17ca548df2d4efd9ba88a619bbd767dfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 41c | 684$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed Yes | 59c | 619$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 45c | 606.94$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.69 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…f94fbacked No | 60c | 599.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…1c48backed No | 39c | 549.77$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 59c | 532.99$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.85 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 49c | 516.59$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 24c | 502.33$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 60c | 494.96$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.25 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…3f56backed Yes | 5c | 416$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 44c | 399.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 399.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 58c | 363$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.03 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed No | 40c | 354.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 62c | 282.9$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 37c | 270.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…4d95backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 50c | 226.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 56c | 223.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 208.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.74 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 55c | 198.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 68c | 194.6$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…47a3backed Yes | 63c | 188.42$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…cf52backed Yes | 47c | 183.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…2f0cbacked Yes | 55c | 180.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…9218backed No | 38c | 160.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 45c | 143.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked No | 36c | 138.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 40c | 137.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…0082backed Yes | 39c | 133.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 80c | 130.18$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef09…60a8backed Yes | 35c | 129.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 67c | 129.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 42c | 128$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…31fcbacked No | 79c | 125.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 22c | 124.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb735…e499backed No | 41c | 122.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 42c | 118.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x887f…a4cbbacked No | 75c | 117.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 31c | 110.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 52c | 106.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…fa00backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e6…b3f2backed No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…0e91backed No | 61c | 97.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…7ee9backed Yes | 62c | 96.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 95.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 43c | 91.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…9c3bbacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…a628backed No | 62c | 88.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 22c | 87.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 81.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes | 40c | 81.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 26c | 79.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 77.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 55c | 76.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…1c69backed No | 41c | 76.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…42e7backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 73c | 74.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd363…e6d1backed No | 64c | 70.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes | 53c | 67.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 38c | 67.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 76c | 65.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed Yes | 30c | 54.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 56c | 53.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495a…55c9backed No | 37c | 53.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…63e0backed No | 55c | 52.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 63c | 51.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…1f12backed No | 62c | 51.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 73c | 50.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 46c | 50.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…407fbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 48.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked No | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93a…8a46backed No | 38c | 43.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.