Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfff1c8bf34207d78d35bd98389270253db3f0b1a3483a0b06fd9adc881ce8cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 42c | 577.71$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 39c | 479.01$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.86 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fc…d11cbacked Yes | 9c | 360.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 12c | 333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 332.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…1376backed No | 65c | 247.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 65c | 242.74$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 62c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed No | 50c | 193.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 53c | 187.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 57c | 174.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…4486backed No | 74c | 135.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…c02ebacked Yes | 50c | 120.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 77c | 107.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 44c | 102.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 65c | 102$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…ce2cbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 61c | 92.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…023abacked No | 78c | 90.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…8c9dbacked No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 62c | 79.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 44c | 74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed No | 38c | 66.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 43c | 57.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…8bc5backed No | 45c | 56.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…e022backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 59c | 49.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 38c | 48.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 49c | 47.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…2469backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…a88dbacked Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked No | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 42.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…dde7backed Yes | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 57c | 36.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…c6b5backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…530abacked Yes | 59c | 32.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes | 63c | 31.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 61c | 31.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…48a6backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 28.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…79febacked No | 78c | 28.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 46c | 26.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked No | 76c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…0af4backed No | 61c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…9969backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…b412backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tomahawk" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "beautiful" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "card" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "suit" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during Ukraine President events on December 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "two weeks" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.