TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7ee3…023a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Dota2, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 56 out of 100; worst CS2 at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$11.9
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$14.89
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$22.42
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$11.66
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+194.1%+$40.99
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$73.46
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$13.06
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$12.33
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+157.4%+$68.05
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20.25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$29.35
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$328.84
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+63.9%+$88.49
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$136.56
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$46.36
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$176.31
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$625Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$624.59
All 17 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+133.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs L1ga Team (BO3)backed L1ga Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+34.2%+$25.79
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Spirit Academy (BO3)backed Spirit Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+300%+$215.67
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity (BO3)backed Team Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+66.7%+$39.26
All 3 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+34.5%+$24.31
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+35.5%+$8.37
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs FengDa Gaming (BO3)backed FengDa Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$46.65
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Morningstar (BO3)backed Rare Atom · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$298.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Billsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+28.9%+$44.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+27.7%+$19.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another country win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$276.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Comoros vs. Mali end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.