Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f3284276eb79560f19f59477b4e3ffe5f02feca057672c2b74dd9594cdac136

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $913,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $627,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $913,395 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 523 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	7c	21,332$1,523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,522.98	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	31c	18,010$5,527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,527.27	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	29c	13,799$3,977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,977.4	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	34c	12,001$4,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,109.68	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	12c	10,994$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300.29	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	10,165$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.22	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f8…fdf7backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	9,900$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.7	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	10c	9,126$946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$945.65	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	3c	6,616$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.91	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	6,500$937 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$937.12	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	74c	6,197$4,608 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,588.64	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	26c	6,067$1,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,601.92	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	11c	5,801$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.93	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,743$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	22c	5,000$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,750$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	24c	4,654$1,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,108	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	13c	4,520$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	24c	4,249$1,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,027.27	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8157…f6ebbacked Yes	20c	4,100$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$820	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	28c	3,946$1,118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,117.72	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	6c	3,742$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.67	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	0c	3,713$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	5c	3,572$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.85	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafcf…d662backed Yes	23c	3,500$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+46%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f3…3a31backed No	77c	3,500$2,695 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$805	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	23c	3,101$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.02	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	32c	3,074$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.1	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	75c	3,045$2,287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$757.94	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	10c	3,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	19c	3,000$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.99	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	23c	2,868$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.85	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6bd…a17ebacked Yes	11c	2,763$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	19c	2,737$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.51	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	24c	2,615$628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.6	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	26c	2,600$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.27	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	29c	2,598$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.64	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b99…eda5backed Yes	23c	2,592$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$585.25	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	76c	2,544$1,923 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$620.59	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	8c	2,518$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.44	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	2,500$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	72c	2,375$1,715 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$659.96	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	29c	2,226$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.38	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	9c	2,203$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.24	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2af…c94bbacked Yes	19c	2,201$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0a8…5f1abacked Yes	34c	2,133$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.35	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	22c	2,072$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.87	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed No	78c	2,051$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.28	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	2,019$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	45c	2,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.94	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	20c	2,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	5c	2,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	13c	1,900$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.8	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	22c	1,874$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	23c	1,867$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes	5c	1,800$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	100	15%15 W · 85 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdffa…1ea3backed Yes	24c	1,705$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b4f…2490backed Yes	24c	1,669$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.26	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	8c	1,600$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.5	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc43…abf5backed No	73c	1,558$1,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427.09	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	70cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc60…997cbacked Yes	39c	1,527$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	1,525$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.55	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	6c	1,425$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.84	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	12c	1,403$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.41	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	15c	1,400$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	29c	1,397$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed7e…a908backed Yes	18c	1,389$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94f3…c382backed No	80c	1,385$1,104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.3	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked No	77c	1,379$1,067 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.37	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	22c	1,376$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec36…9ae3backed Yes	10c	1,352$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.8	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	20c	1,350$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.54	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd3…3a42backed Yes	26c	1,330$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.95	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	16c	1,322$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.77	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c0…6aa1backed Yes	24c	1,317$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.34	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	18c	1,306$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.56	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	72c	1,299$929 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370.34	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	28c	1,299$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	40c	1,278$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.44	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcea5…0750backed Yes	26c	1,275$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.77	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	1,213$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.89	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	24c	1,198$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	77c	1,188$911 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.44	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	8c	1,180$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.6	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ac…47c2backed Yes	20c	1,165$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.26	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	22c	1,146$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	24c	1,106$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.9	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c49…5251backed Yes	27c	1,103$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.17	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	13c	1,100$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.8	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	18c	1,100$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	19c	1,092$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	19c	1,090$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	44c	1,056$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	1,047$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.91	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6201…d386backed Yes	20c	1,015$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x118c…74c5backed Yes	38c	1,003$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.14	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe69d…3d42backed Yes	39c	1,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	44cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x702a…b07fbacked No	61c	1,000$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event